Global Ag News For Dec 15.2025

TOP HEADLINES

JBS to close California beef plant

JBS will permanently close a facility outside Los Angeles that prepares beef for sale at U.S. grocery stores, the world’s largest meat company said on Friday, as tight cattle supplies have raised costs for meatpackers.

JBS will shut its Swift Beef Company facility in Riverside, California, on February 2, eliminating 374 jobs, according to a notice from the state’s Employment Development Department.

Beef prices set record highs this year after ranchers slashed the U.S. cattle herd to its lowest level in decades due to a persistent drought that dried up pasture lands. A halt on U.S. imports of Mexican cattle tightened supplies further, as Washington seeks to keep out a flesh-eating parasite.

U.S. President Donald Trump has said he is working to bring down beef prices for consumers and accused meatpacking companies of driving up prices through manipulation.

Low supplies have forced meatpackers to pay more for cattle to slaughter into hamburgers and steaks.

Workers at JBS’s facility process beef for sale in grocers’ meat cases but do not slaughter cattle. The facility is not shutting due to low cattle supplies, a company spokesperson said.

The meatpacker planned the closure as “part of a strategic initiative to optimize its value-added and case-ready business and simplify operations across its network,” according to a statement.

“The company remains focused on delivering high-quality products and dependable service while strengthening its operational footprint to meet evolving market demands,” the statement said.

JBS will shift production for its customers to other facilities, and workers will be eligible for jobs at other plants, the statement said.

Last month, JBS executives projected its U.S. beef margins would likely tighten in the fourth quarter from the prior period due to the U.S. cattle shortage.

Rival meatpacker Tyson Foods in January will shut a major cattle slaughtering plant in Nebraska with about 3,200 employees.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 3 1/4 in SRW, down 3 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 1/4; Soybeans unchanged; Soymeal up $0.50; Soyoil up 0.03.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 8 3/4 in SRW, down 11 1/2 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is down 3; Soybeans down 20; Soymeal down $5.70; Soyoil down 1.02.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 12 1/2 in SRW, down 12 1/2 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 7 1/4; Soybeans down 59 1/4; Soymeal down $18.10; Soyoil down 1.91.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 4.6% in SRW, down 7.9% in HRW, down 3.6% in HRS; Corn is down 3.9%; Soybeans up 7.9%; Soymeal down 1.6%; Soyoil up 26.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 26) Soybeans down 9 yuan; Soymeal down 11; Soyoil down 78; Palm oil down 82; Corn down 3 — Malaysian Palm is down 12.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 12 ringgit (-0.30%) at 4006.

There were changes in registrations (-20 Soymeal). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 120 Oats; 47 Corn; 1,131 Soybeans; 810 Soyoil; 184 Soymeal; 33 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of December 12 were: SRW Wheat up 1,680 contracts, HRW Wheat up 3,304, Corn up 17,121, Soybeans down 3,284, Soymeal down 6,207, Soyoil up 6,617.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 15 DECEMBER 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Cold conditions in the Upper Midwest will slowly ease through the next 5-7 days, with milder weather likely by late December
• SOUTH AMERICA: Heavy rainfall is expected across Mato Grosso and Goiás crop areas, as totals between 150-200mm/10 days will increase the risk of flooding
• EUROPE: Cold weather is likely to emerge in late December across Western Europe, with temperatures 2-4 °C below normal in France
• AUSTRALIA: A brief heatwave will move along southern Australia this week, supporting completion of wheat/rapeseed harvest
• TELECONNECTIONS: The latest sub-seasonal forecast indicates the Polar Vortex will stabilize in January, reducing the risk of frequent cold outbreaks in the Northern Hemisphere

ARGENTINA WILL TREND HOTTER AND DRIER THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR TO THE DETRIMENT OF CORN/SOYBEANS

What to Watch:

• Argentina will hotter and drier into the foreseeable future to the detriment of corn/soybeans
• Cool/wet conditions over most Brazil crop regions through the next couple weeks will create a favorable outlook, though local drought risks will persist in the far south
• Cool and wet weather is in store for Paraguay over the next 1-2 weeks in a positive outlook for corn/soybeans

 

Brazil: A front brought some heavy rain to south-central Brazil on Friday and Saturday. Another front will move through with enhanced showers across the south on Monday and Tuesday. Showers have been less intense across central Brazil over the last week, but the coverage has been good, which is still improving soil moisture. Those showers continue this week as well.

Argentina: A front is bringing scattered showers through the country Sunday and Monday, which brought some needed rain to Buenos Aires, but has favored northern areas again. Some isolated showers may move through southern areas this week, but most areas will be dry until another front moves through this weekend. Forecasts have increased the rainfall for that front. And despite a drier stretch of weather recently, soil moisture is still largely favorable across most of the country, favorable for developing corn and soybeans.

Northern Plains: A band of snow moved through Friday and Saturday, along with some extremely cold air. But warmer air is flooding the region on Monday. A system will move along the border on Wednesday and bring through a few showers and a quick burst of colder air for Thursday. The front to the system may get stuck in the region through the weekend and possibly through much of next week as well, creating some significant differences in temperature from north to south.

Central/Southern Plains: A little snow went through northeastern Nebraska on Saturday, but most areas stayed dry while some cold air moved into the region. That cold air is not lasting with warmer air flooding the region on Monday. A front will sweep through with some briefly milder air and a few showers on Wednesday into Thursday, but drier and warmer conditions are largely expected for a little while longer. That is not a good combination for winter wheat, which is seeing soil moisture falling. It is a slow process in the winter, but will have detrimental effects if this keeps up over the season.

Midwest: A clipper brought a band of snow and an intense burst of significant cold air this weekend. That cold will leave on Monday and Tuesday from west to east. A system will bring through some showers and another brief burst of colder temperatures on Thursday, initiating more lake-effect snow in the Great Lakes. Another system may do something a bit similar but with less cold air and showers this weekend.

Delta: Some showers fell across southern areas with a front that moved through this weekend along with some briefly colder air. A few showers will move through on Wednesday and Thursday, but showers will be hard to come by as a general below-normal precipitation pattern has been in the region this month. Water levels continue to be quite low, though some warmer air up north will melt some of the snowpack in the Midwest and give a little boost to the rivers as well. It just will not be enough and more precipitation is needed.

Europe: A secondary storm track will mean some showers across the Mediterranean this week and some needed rainfall for Italy and parts of Spain. Soil moisture is favorable across much of the rest of the continent for dormant winter wheat.

Black Sea: Some needed precipitation moved through late last week and weekend, but dryness is still an issue for winter wheat that went into dormancy in mixed conditions. It will be another warm and dry week this week, unfavorable for winter wheat.

 

The player sheet for 12/12 had funds: net sellers of 8,500 corn, sellers of 9,000 soybeans, buyers of 1,000 soymeal, and sellers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN AND SOYMEAL SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private export sales of 132,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year. The USDA also confirmed sales of 104,328 tons of U.S. soybean cake and meal to Mexico, with 93,895 tons for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year and 10,433 tons for delivery in the 2026/27 marketing year.
• CORN SALES: The USDA confirmed sales of 250,000 tons of corn to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year.
• FEED WHEAT PURCHASE: Leading South Korean animal feed group Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) purchased around 65,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat in a private deal late on Thursday without issuing an international tender, European traders said on Friday.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDERS: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice, European traders said. The deadline for price offers in that tender is December 22. Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued multiple other international tenders to purchase 50,000 tons of rice, with price offers due on November 20, December 1, December 9 and December 15, European traders said.
• RICE TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in a tender from the Trading Corporation of Pakistan to purchase 100,000 metric tons of rice for supply to Bangladesh was estimated at $394.95 CIF liner out, European traders said. The deadline for submitting price offers was November 28.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 58,244 metric tons of rice to be mainly sourced from China, European traders said. The deadline for the submission of price offers was December 11.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat, which can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for the submission of price offers is December 16.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is December 17.

 

 

TODAY

NOPA November US soybean crush estimated at 220.285 million bushels

The U.S. soy crush likely slowed in November from an all-time high set a month earlier, according to analysts surveyed ahead of a National Oilseed Processors Association report due on Monday.

NOPA members, who represent more than 99% of all U.S. soybean processing capacity, were estimated to have crushed 220.285 million bushels last month, according to the average of estimates from eight analysts surveyed by Reuters.

If the crush estimate is realized, the total would be down 3.2% from the October crush of 227.647 million bushels, which was the highest for any month in NOPA records, but up 14.0% from the November 2024 crush of 193.185 million bushels.

U.S. crush capacity has swelled in recent years as processors built new plants and expanded existing ones to meet rising vegetable oil demand from biofuels makers. NOPA membership has also grown to include more processing plants, further boosting crush figures in the group’s monthly report.

Crush estimates for November ranged from 213.0 million to 224.332 million bushels, with a median of 220.850 million bushels.

The report is scheduled for release at 11 a.m. CST (1700 GMT) on Monday.

Soyoil stocks held by NOPA members as of November 30 were projected at a seven-month high of 1.408 billion pounds, based on estimates from five analysts.

The figure, if realized, would be up 7.9% from stocks totaling 1.305 billion pounds at the end of October and 29.9% above year-earlier stocks of 1.084 billion pounds.

Oil stocks estimates ranged from 1.320 billion to 1.508 billion pounds, with a median of 1.400 billion pounds.

 

Brazil’s record soy exports to mitigate weaker prospects for U.S. and Argentina

Global soybean exports in 2025/26 are projected to increase from the previous season. This growth is primarily driven by Brazil, the leading exporter, despite declines from other major suppliers such as the U.S. and Argentina. Brazil’s export gains are supported by its record harvest potential, which should offset weaker prospects for Argentina (due to production setbacks) and the U.S. (where rising domestic demand and ongoing uncertainty over U.S.-China trade relations weigh on exports).

Brazil is set to consolidate its position as the world’s leading soybean exporter in 2025/26, with total shipments projected at a record high 110 million tons, up 6.7% from the 2024/25 season. The surge is underpinned by a record production outlook current forecast at 178.3 million tons, up 4.1% from the previous season, mainly owing to a great area expansion. China remains the dominant buyer, accounting for over 85% of Brazil’s soybean exports. Brazil delivered a greatly increased amount of soybeans to China during September-November this year compared to the same period last year, while U.S. exports to China have sharply declined due to trade disputes.

U.S. soybean exports in 2025/26 are forecast at 43 million tons, down 14% from the 2024/25 season. The reduction reflects strong competition from South America, Brazil in particular, who has more competitive pricing compared to the U.S. soybeans amid expanded acreage. China remains the pivotal market but little shipments from the U.S. have been recorded since June this year. It was reported that China may purchase 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of the year as a part of the truce between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping during the summit on 30 October, but it was not codified/confirmed by the Chinese government. The export outlook is bleak as China has largely increased Brazilian soybean imports in previous months, which have price advantages over U.S. soybeans.

Argentina’s exports are expected to decrease from the previous season, mainly due to low supply on the back of reduced production and strong crushing. Argentina government has recently reduced soybean export taxes from 26% to 24% and its by-products from 24.5%to 22.5%, which warrants attention.

China remains the dominant consumer, accounting for over 60% of global soybean imports, driven by strong domestic crushing and feed/oil demand, though it is currently facing potential oversupply pressures stemming from substantial soybean imports from Brazil during the earlier months. China’s import strategy remains opportunistic, leveraging high inventories and diversified origins to manage price volatility and geopolitical risk.

 

China Buys Rare Argentine Wheat Cargo as Milei Trims Tariffs

China is buying its first cargo of Argentine wheat in decades at a time when farmers on the Pampas are harvesting a record crop and President Javier Milei is trimming tariffs on shipments in a bid to boost exports.

State-owned Cofco International Ltd. is loading the shipment at its Timbues facility in Argentina’s export hub on the Parana River, which would become the first such cargo since the 1990s. The vessel will then acquire an additional 65,000 metric tons of wheat at an Atlantic port and sail for China.

The purchase comes as Argentine wheat is some of the cheapest in the world thanks to a near-perfect growing season that’s produced a blowout crop. Milei’s latest cut to tariffs on farm exports, including a reduction of 2 percentage points for wheat to 7.5%, was also enacted on Dec. 12, making Argentine cargoes even more competitive.

While export tariffs may be anathema to many countries, Argentina has levied them since the turn of the century to fund government spending. Milei, a libertarian on a crusade to free up business, intends to eventually scrap them altogether.

The wheat trade also deepens a trend of China buying more crops in South America amid a protracted trade dispute with the US.

Last year, not long before President Donald Trump took office, Beijing opened the door to wheat and corn from Argentina in a sign that it viewed the country as an option to diversify its food supplies.

China authorized imports of Argentine soybean meal during Trump’s first term as president and received its first such cargo, chartered by Bunge Global SA, a few weeks ago. At least two more China-bound meal shipments loaded on the Parana in October, as well, but no corn trades have yet been reported.

Despite the size of Argentina’s wheat crop, the grains are of lesser quality due to a lower protein content, which may limit the export-tariff revenue that Milei’s government can receive from their shipments to build up dollar reserves at the central bank.

“There’s a ‘but’ to be noted,” the Rosario Board of Trade said in a report. “Although yields are high, the harvest is showing a lower protein content, negatively affecting the price paid by international buyers.”

 

India Nov. Vegetable Oil Imports Fall to 1.184m Tons: SEA

India’s vegetable oil imports fell to 1.184m tons in November from 1.332m tons in October, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

• Palm oil imports rose to 632,341 tons from 602,381 tons in October
• Soybean oil imports fell to 370,661 tons from 454,619 tons in October
• Sunflower oil imports fell to 142,953 tons from 260,548 tons in October

 

Trump administration unlikely to finalize 2026 biofuel quotas this year, sources say

• EPA still reviewing comments; no end-of-year decision expected
• Delay folds quotas into broader oil-agriculture policy talks
• Uncertainty complicates contracts, hedging, and investment decisions

The Trump administration is not expected to finalize 2026 biofuel-blending quotas before the end of this year, according to three sources familiar with the situation, extending uncertainty over a policy closely watched by the rival oil and agricultural sectors.

The slowdown would throw one of the administration’s most consequential energy policy choices into next year and folds the highly anticipated quotas into a growing cluster of interlocking decisions the White House is weighing on biofuels policy.

Together, the moves have raised expectations the administration may look to strike a broader – albeit elusive – agreement between rival oil and agricultural interests.

The Environmental Protection Agency, which administers biofuels policy, has scheduled meetings with stakeholders on the quota rule early next, two sources told Reuters, a sign that the issue will be pushed into next year.

A third source also said the EPA’s decision was unlikely by the end of this year.

The sources spoke about the matter on condition of anonymity.

The EPA told Reuters it was still reviewing public comments on the volume requirements and declined to offer any guidance on timing. The volume mandates are administered under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), the federal program that mandates the blending of biofuels such as ethanol and biodiesel into the U.S. fuel supply.

A delay in finalizing the mandates is important because fuel makers, farmers and commodity traders use them to lock in supply contracts, hedge volatile crop and energy markets, and justify investments in new production capacity.

Without clarity on next year’s quotas, companies say they are forced to hold back on deals and delay spending decisions that shape biofuel output and margins.

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Firm demand from abroad and reduction in inventories in BR boost trades

Cepea, 12 – Soybean trades moved at a good pace in the spot market this week, boosted by the increase of the demand to complete loads at Brazilian ports and by new Conab estimates indicating a decrease of ending stocks against the previous forecast. This scenario reinforced the upward trend for export premiums in Brazil and boosted domestic values.

Brazilian exports of the 2024/25 season (which finishes at the end of this month) are estimated by Conab at the record of 106.97 million tons, upping 0.3% compared to the previous report. According to data from Secex, 98.88% of this volume had already been shipped up to Dec. 5.

Liquidity has been higher at the ports of Santos (SP) and Paranaguá (PR). In Santos, values upped 0.5% from December 4-11, to close at BRL 142.07 per 60-kg bag on Dec. 11. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) increased 0.9% in the same comparison, closing at BRL 142.52 per 60-kg bag yesterday.

Conab kept the domestic consumption at the record level of 58.57 million tons. As a result, ending stocks were adjusted to 10.43 million tons, downing 2.9% compared to the projection released in November. Still, the volume is 44.3% higher than in the crop before, which limited price rises in the domestic market.

Price increases were also limited by the return of rainfall in major producing regions, reducing farmers’ concerns. Still, Conab reduced productivity data in Mato Grosso in the 2025/26 season, which pressed down the national supply to 177.12 million tons, 0.3% less than the previous forecast. Sowing activities hit 90.3% of the total estimated.

The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) upped 0.5% from December 4-11, to close at BRL 135.83 per 60-kg bag on Dec. 11. On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices moved up 0.5% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) but remained stable in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers).

 

CORN/CEPEA: Demand is low and prices move down

Cepea, 12 – Corn prices started this week at higher levels, but dropped in the following days, triggered by the low domestic demand – some purchasers were away from closing trades in the spot market. Moreover, estimates continue to indicate a high national supply in the 2025/26 season, reinforcing price drops.

Many sellers, in turn, are away from closing deals, expecting price rises in early 2026, based on the possibility that purchasers return trading after the holidays.

As for crops, the rainfall in important producing areas brought a relief for farmers, who were concerned about the impacts of the weather on the development of summer crops and on the planting of the second crop.

 

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Found in Wisconsin Dairy Herd

A highly pathogenic avian influenza was found in a herd of dairy cattle in Wisconsin, the latest in an ongoing outbreak of the disease, the US Department of Agriculture said Sunday.

The disease was confirmed through routine milk testing, the federal agency said in a statement. It is the first known case of HPAI in dairy cattle in Wisconsin. There have been cases in only a small number of states this year, the USDA said. In total, 18 states have recorded cases since the outbreak began in March 2024.

“This detection does not pose a risk to consumer health or affect the safety of the commercial milk supply,” the USDA wrote in the statement. Pasteurization inactivates HPAI virus and only milk from healthy animals is sent for commercial processing, the agency said.

“Milk from impacted animals is being diverted from the commercial milk tank or destroyed so that it does not enter the human food supply,” the statement said.

 

France to vaccinate cattle for lumpy skin disease as farmers protest against cull

• Farmers protest against government’s culling policy
• Vaccination aims to protect farmers and cattle exports, minister says
• Protests block A64 motorway south of Toulouse since Friday

France will vaccinate 1 million head of cattle in the coming weeks against lumpy skin disease, Agriculture Minister Annie Genevard said on Saturday, as protesting farmers blocked roads in opposition to the government’s large-scale culling policy.

The announcement comes after several outbreaks of the highly contagious disease prompted authorities to order the culling of entire herds, sparking demonstrations by farmers who consider the measure excessive.

Lumpy skin disease is a virus spread by insects that affects cattle and buffalo, causing blisters and reducing milk production. While not harmful to humans, it often results in trade restrictions and severe economic losses.

“We will vaccinate nearly one million animals in the coming weeks and protect farmers. I want to reiterate that the state will stand by affected farmers, their losses will be compensated as well as their operating losses,” Genevard told local radio network ICI.

France says that total culling of infected herds, alongside vaccination and movement restrictions, is necessary to contain the disease and allow cattle exports. If the disease continues to spread in livestock farms, it could kill “at the very least, 1.5 million cattle”, Genevard told Le Parisien daily in a previous interview.

A portion of the A64 motorway south of Toulouse remained blocked since Friday afternoon, with about 400 farmers and some 60 tractors still in place on Saturday morning, according to local media.

The government, backed by the main FNSEA farming union, maintains that total culling of infected herds is necessary to prevent the disease from spreading and triggering export bans that would devastate the sector.

But the Coordination Rurale, a rival union, opposes the systematic culling approach, calling instead for targeted measures and quarantine protocols.

“Vaccination will be mandatory because vaccination is protection against the disease,” Genevard said, adding that complete culling remains necessary in some cases because the disease can be asymptomatic and undetectable.

France detected 110 outbreaks across nine departments and culled about 3,000 animals, according to the agriculture ministry. It has paid nearly six million euros to farmers since the first outbreak on June 29.

 

Euronext extends trading hours for agricultural commodities futures

Euronext will introduce a two-hour evening trading session for its milling wheat, rapeseed, and maize futures contracts starting on February 2, the exchange said on Friday.

The move confirms a Reuters report in September that said Euronext was considering lengthening trading hours for its agricultural commodities futures, notably by pushing back the evening close to attract more U.S.-based investors.

Its commodities business is led by wheat futures BL2c1, which have become a global price benchmark alongside CME Group’s CME.O Chicago grain derivatives.

Current trading hours are 10:45 a.m. to 6:30 p.m. Central European Time (0945-1730 GMT). An additional session will be added from 6:30 p.m. to 8:30 p.m. CET (1730-1930 GMT), the exchange said in a statement.

“The extension of trading hours for commodity futures is designed to further support clients’ trading activity by offering more flexibility beyond the regular trading session,” Euronext said in the statement.

The additional trading session will be available for all expiries, except for the front one during the last three days before expiration.

The daily settlement price will continue to be set at 6:30 p.m. CET, Euronext said.

Trades placed during the additional session will be included in the same trading day’s open interest and volume, and will be marked to market using the 6:30 p.m. CET settlement price, it added.

 

 

 

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