Global Ag News for Aug 31.23

TOP HEADLINES

US ports to help restore Ukraine’s maritime infrastructure

U.S. partners will assist Ukraine in restoring its port infrastructure, which has suffered frequent attacks by Russian forces in the past weeks, the Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority announced on Aug. 30.

The state company overseeing Ukraine’s maritime transport signed a memorandum with the U.S. ports of South Louisiana and New Orleans to cooperate in the planning, development, construction, administration, operation, and maintenance of Ukrainian port infrastructure.

The cooperation will also involve the authorities of Ukraine’s largest port, the Odesa Sea Port, according to the announcement.

“As two of the world’s leading grain exporters, the farmers and workers of the United States and Ukraine are tough and take pride in their role in feeding the world,” said Paul Matthews, the CEO of the South Louisana Port.

“This agreement solidifies Port of South Louisiana’s support for the Ukrainian people in the defense of their freedom and creates an alliance with our Ukrainian port partners that focuses on our shared mission of serving global customers and creating economic prosperity for our communities.”

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 9 3/4 in SRW, down 11 3/4 in HRW, down 5 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1; Soybeans down 5 1/2; Soymeal down $3.40; Soyoil up 0.13.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 24 1/2 in SRW, down 44 1/2 in HRW, down 28 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 8 1/4; Soybeans down 6 1/2; Soymeal down $8.20; Soyoil down 0.60.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 94 1/2 in SRW, down 109 1/2 in HRW, down 95 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 33 1/4; Soybeans up 49 1/2; Soymeal up $10.90; Soyoil up 2.77.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 28.2% in SRW, down 19.3% in HRW, down 20.2% in HRS; Corn is down 31.9%; Soybeans down 9.2%; Soymeal down 12.3%; Soyoil up 3.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 23) Soybeans up 29 yuan; Soymeal up 10; Soyoil up 16; Palm oil up 78; Corn up 7 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 80 ringgit (+2.04%) at 4010.

There were changes in registrations (1,000 SRW Wheat, 269 Oats, 65 HRW Wheat). Registration total: 2,398 SRW Wheat contracts; 717 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 67 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 212 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 30 were: SRW Wheat up 354 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,672, Corn down 15,161, Soybeans up 5,505, Soymeal down 4,351, Soyoil down 5,709.

Northern Plains: Above-normal temperatures will be more common than not in the Northern Plains through the weekend. Some disturbances will be moving from the Pacific Northwest into the Canadian Prairies, which may produce some isolated showers, but most of the region will be dry. That will favor the remaining wheat harvest, but not filling corn and soybeans. A front will set up in the region early next week that could bring more widespread showers.

Central/Southern Plains: Milder temperatures in the Central and Southern Plains will be brief with heat returning by the weekend and significant heat possible again in early September. Any rainfall will be limited or nonexistent–not a good way to end the season for filling corn and soybeans.

Midwest: A front passed through the Midwest on Tuesday with a few showers and another burst of milder air, but temperatures start to rise again this weekend. Significant heat could be possible again for early September with little precipitation, a poor way to finish out this year’s corn and soybean crops. Early harvest should find some good conditions, however.

Delta: Milder temperatures are in the Delta, but heat will return this weekend into next week, which could be extremely hot again. Conditions will be mostly dry, though some isolated showers may fall in a few spots at times this weekend into early next week. Early harvest will find good conditions, but immature crops will not.

Brazil: A stalled front in central Brazil is forecast to produce showers throughout the next week. The projected rain is well in advance of the start to the normal wet season, which typically sets in late September or early October. Rains ahead of planting are useful for conditioning soils after a long dry season. Planting may start early due to the better soil conditions, a favorable situation for both the coming soybean and safrinha corn crops. Filling wheat in the south also has favorable conditions, though the remaining safrinha corn harvest will see more delays. A front moving into southern areas this weekend is likely to bring more rounds of rain, some of which may be heavy.

The player sheet for Aug. 30 had funds: net buyers of 4,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 2,500 corn, buyers of 4,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT SALES: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), said on Wednesday it bought 240,000 metric tons of wheat in an international tender. The purchase comprised 120,000 tons of French wheat and 120,000 tons of Romanian wheat, it added.
• SOYBEAN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 266,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans for shipment to unknown destinations in the 2023/24 marketing year.
• FEED BARLEY SALE: Jordan’s state grain buyer has purchased about 60,000 metric tons of animal feed barley to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender that closed on Wednesday.
• DURUM, BARLEY TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency has issued an international tender to purchase about 75,000 metric tons of durum wheat and 50,000 tons of animal feed barley.

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional origins,
• CORN TENDER: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 138,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional origins
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 130,200 metric tons of rice all to be sourced from China, European traders said. The deadline for submissions of price offers in the tender was Aug. 22.
• WHEAT TENDER: A Syrian state grains agency issued an international tender to purchase and import 200,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat, European traders said. The deadline for the submission of price offers in the tender from the Syrian Grain Establishment was Aug. 23. Shipment is sought 60 days after contract award.
• DURUM TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to purchase a nominal 50,000 metric tonnes of durum wheat.

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of six analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending Aug. 24.

• Corn est. range 450k – 1,100k tons, with avg of 730k
• Soybean est. range 600k – 1,600k tons, with avg of 1,075k

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 5.2% to 21.609M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 22.599 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.007m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.02m

Russia says it will have talks with Turkey about alternative to Black Sea deal

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan will discuss a proposal by Moscow for an alternative to the Black Sea grain deal when they meet this week, Lavrov’s ministry said on Wednesday.

Under the plan, Russia would send a million tons of grain to Turkey at a discounted price, with financial support from Qatar, to be processed in Turkey and sent to countries most in need, the Foreign Ministry said.

“We consider this project as the optimal working alternative to the Black Sea deal,” it said.

Russia pulled out last month from the year-old deal, brokered by Turkey and the United Nations, that had enabled Ukraine to export grain from its Black Sea ports despite the war.

Since then, Russia has repeatedly attacked Ukrainian ports and grain stores, prompting Ukraine and the West to accuse it of using food as a weapon of war.

Russia says it quit the deal because too little of the grain was getting to the poorest countries, and because it still faces obstacles to the export of its own grain and fertiliser given that Western sanctions affect payments, insurance and port access.

Fidan is due in Moscow on Thursday and Friday to meet Lavrov, and the Kremlin said on Wednesday that Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan would also visit Russia soon.

It was not clear what incentive Qatar would have to take part in the arrangement proposed by Russia, which since the collapse of the grain deal has also promised to supply quantities of free grain to six African countries.

The Russian statement said Lavrov would restate Moscow’s position that following the collapse of the grain deal, it would consider all ships heading to Ukraine as potentially carrying military cargo.

European feeds-Soymeal dips on larger US supplies hopes – Refinitiv Commodities Research

Soymeal on the European meals and feeds market was bearish on Thursday following a decline in CBOT Soybean futures after data showing U.S. crop less damaged than feared.

• South American soymeal was offered as much as $9 a tonne lower from Wednesday. The market was under pressure from the next expansion of soybean plantings in the US in 2024. Soybean plantings were seen at 85.402 million acres, up 2.3% from the USDA’s 2023 estimates of 83.505 million, according to A Farm Futures magazine.
• Brazil’s record soybean exports added pressure on prices. Brazil exported over 70 million tonnes of soybean from January to July 2023, Merco Press reported.
• EU rapemeal was quoted four per tonne lower tracking deep falls in European rapeseed and Canadian canola futures as new rapeseed crop from Ukraine and the EU entering the market. The forecast for a 30% increase in winter rapeseed sowing in Ukraine for the 2024/25 season also weighed on prices.

Driest August in a Century Stokes Fears of More India Crop Curbs

• India’s August rainfall 36% lower than long-term average
• Key rice and sugar cane growing areas get deficient showers

India received the lowest August rains since at least 1901, prompting concerns about weaker crop output and the potential for more export restrictions following the South Asian nation’s curbs on rice.

The country received 629.7 millimeters of rainfall this month, 36% lower than normal, according to data compiled by the India Meteorological Department. Total rainfall during June-August was 10% below average, the figures show.

Monsoon rains irrigate about half of India’s farmland and are crucial for crops such as sugar and soybeans. Erratic weather has hurt some harvests since last year, forcing the nation to restrict exports of wheat and rice to cool domestic retail inflation that surged to a 15-month high in July. The government has also imposed stockpile limits on some crops.

September rains will be crucial to make up the shortfall as the monsoon nears its end, especially given the onset of El Niño, which can bring drier conditions. Some main rice-growing regions in the nation’s east have had poor rainfall, hurting prospects of the biggest monsoon-sown food grain crop in the area, according to the weather office. The cane areas in the western and southern parts have also seen lower rainfall, it said.

Any decline in production of wheat, rice and sugar in the world’s second-biggest grower could put more stress on global food supplies and boost prices of major commodities. Rice prices in Asia are hovering near a 15-year high and sugar prices in New York are up more than 25% this year.

Malaysia Aug. Palm Oil Exports -3% M/m: Intertek

Following is a summary of Malaysia’s Aug. palm oil exports according to Intertek Testing Services.

• Total exports for Aug. 2023: 1.201m tons
• Crude palm oil exports: 323,520 tons, 26.9% of total
• EU led all destinations for total exports: 385,850 tons

Ammonia, Urea Climb, Phosphates Dip

Sparked by recent bullish spot sales in international markets, the Tampa ammonia price for September jumped to $390 a metric ton (mt) cost-and-freight, up 32% from August’s $295. Though inland urea remained under pressure, New Orleans (NOLA) urea barge prices were trending higher after weeks of decline, fueled by concern about falling Mississippi River levels and the possibility of a compressed fall shipping window. Inland ammonium sulfate was also up slightly on new postings from AdvanSix and Interoceanic, while phosphates were flat-to-lower at NOLA and unchanged at most inland terminals. Potash was also steady from last week at NOLA and most inland terminals.

 

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