Global Ag News for Aug 24.23

TOP HEADLINES

Bio-Based Diesel Floods California’s Fuel Mix

For the first time, bio-based diesels make up more than 50% of California’s diesel pool. Renewable diesel supply has had a particularly impressive growth spurt, surging 9% quarter-on-quarter to hit more than 400 million gallons in the first quarter of 2023, which marked the 10th record-setting quarter in a row. As a result, renewable diesel made up 49% of California’s diesel pool in 1Q 2023. Biodiesel, meanwhile, has been holding steady at 7-8% of the fuel mix since the beginning of 2022, pushing the total bio-based share of the state’s diesel supply to 57%.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 2 3/4 in SRW, down 4 in HRW, unchanged in HRS; Corn is down 3 3/4; Soybeans up 3 3/4; Soymeal up $5.60; Soyoil down 0.66.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 2 in SRW, down 1 in HRW, down 14 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 6 1/4; Soybeans up 11; Soymeal up $17.60; Soyoil down 1.78.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 54 3/4 in SRW, down 69 3/4 in HRW, down 66 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 26 1/4; Soybeans up 32 1/2; Soymeal up $10.70; Soyoil up 2.32.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 23.0% in SRW, down 15.4% in HRW, down 16.5% in HRS; Corn is down 30.3%; Soybeans down 10.5%; Soymeal down 12.1%; Soyoil up 2.1%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 23) Soybeans up 27 yuan; Soymeal up 8; Soyoil up 158; Palm oil up 86; Corn up 17 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 50 ringgit (+1.31%) at 3880.

There were changes in registrations (-50 Soyoil). Registration total: 1,398 SRW Wheat contracts; 448 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 67 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 147 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 23 were: SRW Wheat down 128 contracts, HRW Wheat down 2,037, Corn down 6,760, Soybeans up 7,777, Soymeal down 5,743, Soyoil down 2,222.

Northern Plains: A stalled front will waffle around the Northern Plains for the next couple of days, leading to areas of showers and wavering temperatures. The front will get pushed southward on Friday. Another little system will follow on Sunday into early Monday with some isolated showers possible. Heat will return behind it in the middle of next week, however, making for mixed conditions for filling corn and soybeans. Potential showers could delay the wheat harvest.

Central/Southern Plains: Hot and dry conditions continue in the Central and Southern Plains for the next few days, causing stress for filling corn and soybeans. The heat will quickly sap any built-up soil moisture. A front will sag south through the region Friday through the weekend, bringing milder temperatures and potential rainfall that would prove beneficial if it occurs. Another round of heat may build back in next week.

Midwest: Hot and dry conditions are largely in place in the Midwest through Thursday, though a stalled front across the north and east could bring some isolated showers to some areas. Heat will be most intense in the southwest and sap any available soil moisture quickly. The front will get pushed southward Friday and Saturday, offering relief from the heat, but not much in the way of rainfall. After another front moves through Monday and Tuesday with some isolated showers, above-normal temperatures are likely to build back into the region. Though any showers will be welcome, the forecast is mainly stressful for filling corn and soybeans.

Delta: Hot and dry conditions continue in the Delta for the rest of the week. A front sagging south will move into the region this weekend, which will reduce the heat and potentially bring some showers as well. Any rainfall would be helpful for filling soybeans and cotton.

Brazil: Southern Brazil’s wheat areas have been enjoying good growing conditions for most of the winter. Rains have been disruptive to the remaining safrinha corn harvest, however. Another front will move through the south later this week and get into central areas this weekend where showers are forecast to continue through next week. The projected rain is well in advance of the start to the normal wet season and soybean planting window. Rains ahead of planting are useful for conditioning soils after a long dry season, but planting is restricted until mid-September for most areas. However, planting may start early due to the better soil conditions, a favorable indicator for both the soybean and coming safrinha corn crops.

Argentina: Soil moisture remains sub-optimal in Argentina. Some rains have moved through at times, but not enough to reverse last season’s drought. Rain moved through early this week, but still was not enough. Cold temperatures flowing into the country may produce some frosts later this week and weekend, which may cause some damage to more-advanced wheat. Temperatures have varied wildly due to passing strong fronts over the last couple of weeks and that looks to continue for early spring prior to planting. These fronts have been and continue to look limited in their rainfall potential, however.

The player sheet for Aug. 23 had funds: net buyers of 5,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 7,000 corn, buyers of 8,000 soybeans, buyers of 2,500 soymeal, and  buyers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYMEAL SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 100,000 metric tons of U.S. soymeal for delivery to unknown destinations in the 2023/24 marketing year that begins Oct. 1, 2023.
• CORN PURCHASE: South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) bought an estimated 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender seeking up to 138,000 tons
• CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased an estimated 66,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from South America or South Africa in a private deal late on Tuesday without issuing an international tender
• CORN PURCHASE: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to expected to be sourced from Brazil in an international tender on Wednesday, European traders said.
• FEED WHEAT PURCHASE: An importer group in Thailand is believed in past days to have purchased about 60,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat expected to be sourced from the European Union.
• FEED BARLEY PURCHASE: Japan will import 220 metric tons of feed-quality barley for livestock use via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that closed late on Wednesday, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said. The ministry had sought 60,000 tons of feed wheat and 20,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by Nov. 30 and arrive in Japan by Jan. 25.
• CORN TENDER CANCELED: Egypt’s state buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities GASC), said it had canceled an international tender for yellow corn, confirming earlier reports by traders. GASC did not give a reason for the cancellation, but traders said that high prices were a potential reason. GASC had set a tender for yellow corn for shipment Oct. 1-15 and/or Oct. 15-30.
• BARLEY TENDER PASSED: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley which closed on Wednesday
• FEED WHEAT TENDER PASSED: South Korean animal feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) is believed to have rejected offers and made no purchase in an international tender for up to 130,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat.

PENDING TENDERS

• VEGETABLE OILS TENDER: Egypt’s GASC is seeking refined sunflower oil in one-liner bottles in an international tender. It is seeking at least 5,000 metric tons of oils, free of customs, on behalf of the Holding Company for Food Industries, for delivery during October and/or November and/or December. Deadline for submitting offers was Aug. 17.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 130,200 metric tons of rice all to be sourced from China
• WHEAT TENDER: A Syrian state grains agency issued an international tender to purchase and import 200,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat
• CORN, SOYMEAL TENDERS: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued an international tender to purchase up to 180,000 tonnes of animal feed corn and 120,000 tons of soymeal.
• VEGOILS TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer, GASC, said it was seeking vegetable oils in an international purchasing tender for arrival Oct. 6-20 and/or Oct. 21 to Nov.5. The deadline for offers is Aug. 24.
• FOOD WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 91,462 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender that will close on Aug. 24.
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 104,000 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States.

 TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of four analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending Aug. 17.

• Corn est. range 300k – 950k tons, with avg of 700k
• Soybean est. range 650k – 1,300k tons, with avg of 1,075k

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 2.8% to 22.79M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 23.431 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.048m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.054m

CROP TOUR: Illinois Corn, Soybean Crops Seen Above a Year Ago

Soybean pod counts in the top-growing US state of Illinois were estimated at 1,270.61 in a 3-by-3 foot square, according to Pro Farmer Crop Tour data Wednesday.

• That’s above the crop tour findings a year ago of 1,249.7 and the three-year average of 1,258.96 pods
• Results based on samples from 228 fields
• Corn yield in Illinois, which grows the most corn after top state Iowa, were estimated at 193.72 bu/acre based on 229 samples
  • That’s above 190.71 on last year’s crop tour and the three-year average of 192.14
  • NOTE: That compares to the US Department of Agriculture’s Aug. 11 estimate for 201 bu/acre
• NOTE: Crop tour wraps up Thursday with estimates for Iowa and Minnesota

CROP TOUR: Corn Yields Mixed in Three Iowa Districts; Soy Down

Corn yields potential for corn topped last year’s numbers in two of three districts in Northwestern Iowa while one was below last year’s, according to 211 samples taken Wednesday from the third day of the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour.

• Yields for district 1 avg 182.5 bu/acre after 91 samples
  • Compares with 181.1 last year, three-year avg of 182.1 bu/acre
• District 4 yields were 168.7 bu/acre after 78 samples
  • Compares with year-ago avg of 180.8 bu/acre; three-year avg of 184.8
• District 7 came in at 184.8 bu/acre after 42 samples
  • Compares with 173.7 bu/acre last year, 3-year avg of 183.6 bu/acre
• Soybean pod count in 3-by-3-foot square were lower compared to a year ago in two districts and lower in one district for the three-year avg
• Soybeans in district 1 were measured at 1,137.2 pods after 90 samples
  • That compares with 1,089.7 pods last year, three-year avg of 1,064.1 pods
• District 4 came in at 1,120.3 after 77 samples
  • Compares with 1,258.9 last year, three-year avg of 1,220.5
• District 7 counts were 1,170.3 after 40 samples
  • Compares with 1,223.9 pods last year, three-year avg of 1,251.8 pods
• NOTE: The crop tour does not project soybean yields
• NOTE: Data for the whole state will be published Thursday
• NOTE: USDA this month forecast Iowa corn yields at an avg 203 bu/acre, up 3 bushels from last year
  • USDA sees soybean yields at 58 bu/acre, five bushels higher than last year 

Argentina grains exchange sees dry start to 2023/24 corn season

Argentina’s farmlands planted with corn should reach an estimated 7.3 million hectares for the 2023/24 cycle, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said in a pre-season report on Wednesday, though dry conditions could delay the crop’s sowing.

Farmers are expected to start planting corn in September.

The projected planting area would be 2.8% times larger than the area planted in the previous campaign, which was hit hard by a historic drought across Argentina’s agricultural heartlands.

“Across most of the agricultural area, profiles show scarce water reserves, leaving doubts around the sowing of early corn,” the exchange said, estimated 7.3 million hectares

In the south of the agricultural area, it added, farmlands currently see adequate to optimal conditions.

The El Nino weather pattern should improve conditions by the southern hemisphere summer, it added, bringing rainfall that should “significantly reduce the area with water deficit.”

“Although the season will begin with low reserves and a lack of rain, which will challenge early planting, as spring progresses El Nino will bring the necessary moisture for the late planting,” the exchange concluded.

Earlier this month, the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) said current weather forecasts call for a more moderate El Nino and that rains will most likely pick up from October.

The BCR’s pre-season estimate pegged the corn planting area at 8.5 million hectares, yielding approximately 56 million metric tons – though it warned many farmers will likely delay or abandon their corn sowing plans if there is not enough rain.

Agritel sees French wheat exports rising to 17 mln T in 2023/24

Consultancy Agritel on Thursday forecast that French soft wheat exports would rise to about 17 million tons in 2023/24, against 16.4 million last season, supported by strong sales within the European Union.

However, non-EU soft wheat shipments would fall to 9.5 million tons, down from a three-year high of 10 million in 2022/23, mainly due to a fall in shipments to Morocco, Agritel, Argus Media’s agriculture analytics arm, said in a presentation.

France is the EU’s largest wheat producer and exporter.

Agritel kept its estimate of this year’s soft wheat harvest in France unchanged at 34.8 million metric tons, up 3% on 2022.

France’s farm ministry early this month raised its estimate of the country’s 2023 soft wheat production to 35.59 million tons from an initial projection of 35 million in July.

Indonesia June Palm Oil Exports Rise to 3.45m Tons: Gapki

Indonesia’s palm oil exports rose to 3.45m tons in June from 2.23mtons in May, according to Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki).

• Palm oil output fell to 4.42m tons from 5.08mtons in May
• Palm oil stockpiles fall to 3.685m tons from 4.67mtons in May
• Palm oil domestic consumption rose to 1.963m tons from 1.82mtons in May
• Palm oil for biodiesel domestic consumption rose to 893,000 tons from 696k tons in May

Putin Says Talks to Supply Free Grain to Africa Near Resolution

Russia will supply 25-50 thousand tons of grain to each of 6 African countries in the coming months as humanitarian aid, President Vladimir Putin says at BRICS summit.

• Russia has a record grain harvest for second year in a row
• Russian fuel lets friendly countries rein in inflation
• Russia plans to develop ties with African countries 

China says GMO soy, corn yields up to 11.6% higher in large trials

China’s farm ministry on Thursday said large trials of genetically modified corn and soybeans showed “outstanding” results and that application of the technology was completely safe.

China has not yet approved commercial planting of GMO corn and soybeans, but has been studying the crops for years, and this year significantly expanded the acreage of its pilot programme.

The trials in 20 counties in the provinces of Yunnan, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Jilin, and Sichuan showed “outstanding” insect resistance and herbicide resistance, said the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.

The control of Lepidoptera pests such as Spodoptera frugiperda, also known as fall armyworm, was over 90%, it said, while 95% of weeds were prevented.

It also said the yields were up by between 5.6% and 11.6%.

The information, published in the state-owned Farmers Daily newspaper and on the ministry’s website, also addressed questions about safety, apparently in an attempt to soothe concerns of the general public.

 

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