Global Ag News for Aug 22.23

TOP HEADLINES

Canada Cuts Crop Output Forecasts Due to Drought Conditions

WINNIPEG, Manitoba–Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada reduced production forecasts for several cereal, oilseed and pulse crops in its August outlook that led to revisions in exports, domestic usage and ending stocks, pointing to the drought in southern Alberta and western Saskatchewan.

While AAFC’s call on 2023-24 canola production was held at 18.80 million metric tons, the department noted an error. “The imbalance between canola supplies and disappearance is reflected in the negative feed, waste and dockage and error estimate of 663,000 tons,” the report said. “The negative FWD reflects an underestimation of the carryin and/or production for the crop year, these estimates are expected to be revised in an upcoming release of Statistics Canada’s supply and disposition report.”

StatCan is scheduled to issue its model-based production estimates on Aug. 29, followed by its stocks report on Sept. 8. The September report from AAFC is expected to more accurately reflect crop output for 2023-24.

MarketsFarm Pro analyst Mike Jubinville further explained the error. “The negative FWD number obviously cannot stand, but it’s very likely an acknowledgement from the government that their 2022 canola production estimate of 18.1 MMT is not right, understated by at minimum of 500,000 to more likely around 700,000 tons,” he said. “Now it is up to StatCan to make the correction, maybe in their September grain stocks report or maybe they delay it until their December production report.”

All wheat 2023-24 production was lowered from 35.33 million tons in July to 33.21 million tons, and durum was cut from 5.70 million tons to 4.91 million tons.

“Drought conditions for the southern half of Alberta and southwest and west-central Saskatchewan lower the durum and the spring,” Jubinville said. “They are still too high but working in the direction of lower in future reports I suspect.”

Oats were trimmed from 2.82 million tons to 2.71 million tons.

Meanwhile, the department’s soybean estimate stayed at 6.85 million tons.

Corn saw an increase from 14.53 million tons in July to 15.30 million tons, based on good growing conditions in Ontario, Quebec and Manitoba, according to AAFC.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 6 1/2 in SRW, up 5 3/4 in HRW, up 3 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1/2; Soybeans down 3; Soymeal up $1.70; Soyoil down 0.68.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 7 in SRW, down 6 3/4 in HRW, down 15 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 9 3/4; Soybeans up 5 1/2; Soymeal up $9.20; Soyoil down 0.99.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 59 3/4 in SRW, down 75 1/2 in HRW, down 67 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 30; Soybeans up 27; Soymeal up $2.30; Soyoil up 3.11.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 23.6% in SRW, down 15.9% in HRW, down 16.4% in HRS; Corn is down 30.8%; Soybeans down 10.0%; Soymeal down 13.6%; Soyoil up 5.6%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 23) Soybeans down 7 yuan; Soymeal down 31; Soyoil down 4; Palm oil down 36; Corn down 6 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 67 ringgit (-1.70%) at 3869.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,398 SRW Wheat contracts; 448 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 117 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 147 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 21 were: SRW Wheat down 1,080 contracts, HRW Wheat up 617, Corn down 7,681, Soybeans up 9,693, Soymeal down 2,727, Soyoil down 586.

Northern Plains: Heat built into the Midwest over the weekend, but did have a day’s break on Sunday across the north with a front settling in. That front will remain stuck over northern areas much of the week and provide opportunity for some rainfall. The front will get pushed southward late this week and weekend, offering a brief relief from the heat. Above-normal temperatures are likely to build back in next week for a time. Heat will be most intense in the southwest and sap any available soil moisture quickly. The front’s movement southward could offer some better showers in the region, which would be helpful for filling corn and soybeans.

Central/Southern Plains: Hot and dry conditions over the weekend continue for much of this week in the Central and Southern Plains, causing stress for filling corn and soybeans. The heat will quickly sap any built-up soil moisture. A front will sag south through the region late this week and weekend, bringing briefly milder temperatures and potential rainfall that would prove beneficial if it occurs. Above-normal temperatures are likely to build back in next week.

Midwest: Heat built into the Midwest over the weekend, but did have a day’s break on Sunday across the north with a front settling in. That front will remain stuck over northern areas much of the week and provide opportunity for some rainfall. The front will get pushed southward late this week and weekend, offering a brief relief from the heat. Above-normal temperatures are likely to build back in next week for a time. Heat will be most intense in the southwest and sap any available soil moisture quickly. The front’s movement southward could offer some better showers in the region, which would be helpful for filling corn and soybeans.

Delta: Hot and dry conditions built back into the Delta over the weekend, which continues all week long. A front sagging south will move into the region this coming weekend, which will reduce the heat and potentially bring some showers as well. Any rainfall would be helpful for filling soybeans and cotton.

The player sheet for Aug. 21 had funds: net sellers of 4,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 5,500 corn, sellers of 2,500 soybeans, buyers of 2,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 1,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) is seeking wheat in an international purchasing tender. The deadline for offers is Aug. 22. Offers should be submitted on a free-on-board (FOB) basis, for at sight payment using funding from the ITFC, GASC said on Monday.
• CORN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 111,770 metric tons of U.S. corn for delivery to Mexico in the 2023/24 marketing year that begins Sept. 1.
• SOYBEAN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 159,350 metric tons of U.S. soybeans for delivery to “unknown” destinations in the 2023/24 marketing year that begins Sept. 1.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 104,000 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States
• CORN AND SOYMEAL TENDERS: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLALOM issued two international tenders to purchase up to 180,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 120,000 metric tons of soymeal
• VEGETABLE OILS TENDER: Egypt’s GASC is seeking refined sunflower oil in one-liner bottles in an international tender. It is seeking at least 5,000 metric tons of oils, free of customs, on behalf of the Holding Company for Food Industries, for delivery during October and/or November and/or December. Deadline for submitting offers was Aug. 17.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 130,200 metric tons of rice all to be sourced from China
• WHEAT TENDER: A Syrian state grains agency issued an international tender to purchase and import 200,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued a new international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• FEED WHEAT AND BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (GAFF) said it will seek 60,000 metric tons of feed wheat and 20,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by Nov. 30 and arrive in Japan by Jan. 25 via a simultaneous buy and sell (SIBS) auction that will be held on Aug. 23. 

TODAY

CROP TOUR: Drought Takes Toll on South Dakota Corn, Soybeans

Less-than-average rainfall in southeastern South Dakota harmed yield potential for corn and soybeans, according to scouts on Monday, the first day of the four-day Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour.

• Corn yield potential averaged 142.3 bu/acre after 9 stops in Lincoln, Turner, Hutchinson and Yankton counties, with a low of 80 bu in Lincoln and high of 179 in Hutchinson
• That compares with an average of 106 bu/acre for the region in 2022
• Tip back, a phenomenon where tops of the ears are lacking kernels, was seen in almost all 9 stops today, showing how dry conditions have been
• Drier periods in early summer took a toll on yields, but results could have been worse, said Marty Tegtmeier, an Iowa farmer
• “The upcoming heat wave will shrink some kernels. It is not in the bag yet, especially given different growth stages we have seen,” Tegtmeier said

SOYBEANS

• Soybean pod counts averaged 286 pods in a 3-by-3-food square, with a low of 201 pods in Lincoln and a high of 482 in Hutchinson
• The average is below 830 pods on the tour last year and the three-year average of 1,048.88 pods
• Plants are still setting pods, but soils in most fields were too dry and more rains are needed to boost yields
• “If it rains we will see more pods out, but it doesn’t look good for that. We have another month to go for the soybean crop,” says Brad Feckers, an Iowa farmer and crop scout
• “Rain necessity is immediate,” Feckers said
• NOTE: The crop tour doesn’t estimate soybean yields
• NOTE: The western leg of the tour will make corn yield and soy pod count projections for the entire state of South Dakota later on Monday

CROP TOUR: August Heat Could Still Hurt Ohio’s Immature Corn

Yield estimates for corn in west-central Ohio were roughly on average with last year but immature ears of grain signal that the crop still has weeks left in the growing season, according to scouts Monday on the eastern route of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour.

• That means corn still could be damaged by the heat wave that’s expected to hit the Midwestern crop belt this week
• Typically, July is seen as the most crucial month for the US corn crop
• “It makes this last bit of August and early September relevant,” says crop scout Josh Yoder, an Ohio farmer and partner at agriculture retailer Yoder Ag Services
• “We were operating under the understanding that the crop was made”
• “Overall the health of the crop looks good and there’s soil moisture,” says Thiago Oliveira, portfolio manager at BTG Pactual in Brazil
• “Hopefully this week of drier and hotter weather won’t be a problem”
• On one route that went through Auglaize and Mercer counties, corn yield potential averaged 172.4 bu/acre; vs last year’s average in this area of 172.8 and three-year average of 178

SOYBEANS

• Soybean pod counts averaged 1,049 pods in a 3-by-3-foot square
• That’s just below last year’s estimate on this route of 1,200 pods and the three-year average of 1,213 pods
• Soybeans fields were mostly green with minimal weeds
• “They look pretty average,” Yoder says
• NOTE: The crop tour doesn’t estimate soybean yields
• NOTE: The eastern leg of the tour will make corn yield and soy pod count projections for the entire state of Ohio later on Monday; the tour runs through Thursday

USDA CROP PROGRESS: Corn Conditions 58% G/E, Soybeans 59%

Highlights from the report:

• Corn 58% G/E vs 59% last week, and 55% a year ago
• Corn dented 35% vs 18% last week, and 29% a year ago
• Corn dough 78% vs 65% last week, and 73% a year ago
• Corn mature 4% vs 4% a year ago
• Soybeans 59% G/E vs 59% last week, and 57% a year ago
• Soybeans blooming 96% G/E vs 94% last week, and 96% a year ago
• Spring wheat 38% G/E vs 42% last week, and 64% a year ago
• Spring wheat harvest 39% G/E vs 24% last week, and 31% a year ago
• Winter wheat harvest 96% vs 92% last week, and 94% a year ago
• Cotton 33% G/E vs 36% last week, and 31% a year ago
• Sorghum 51% G/E vs 54% last week, and 25% a year ago

US Inspected 483k Tons of Corn for Export, 316k of Soybean

In week ending Aug. 17, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Soybeans: 316k tons vs 418k the previous wk, 687k a yr ago
• Wheat: 311k tons vs 269k the previous wk, 594k a yr ago
• Corn: 483k tons vs 459k the previous wk, 822k a yr ago

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Aug. 17

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Aug. 17 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for Italy-bound shipments made up 108k tons of the 316k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, and also led in wheat

Constant Rain ‘Seriously’ Stalls Wheat Harvest in North EU: MARS

Near-daily precipitation in parts of northern Europe since late July has “seriously hampered” harvests of remaining winter crops, especially wheat and rapeseed, according to the European Union’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit said in a report.

• Parts of France, Germany and Benelux area impacted most
• That has also created optimal conditions for fungal diseases, which can curb quality
• Soft-wheat yields in the bloc now seen at 5.78 tons/hectare, just below the 5-year average
• Corn yields also below the average
  • Heat and dryness has weighed on crops in areas including Romania and Bulgaria 

Ukraine’s Grain Exports for 2023/24 Rise 8.4% Through Aug. 21

Ukraine’s grain exports in the season that began July 1 totaled 3.6 million tons as of Aug. 21, up 8.4% from last year, data on the Agriculture Ministry’s website shows.

Total includes:

• 1.7m tons of corn, down 20% from last year
• 1.46m tons of wheat, up 64% from last year
• 422K tons of barley, up 55% from last year

Cargill Agrees to Buy Plants From Brazil Biodiesel Maker Granol

• Deal with top Brazilian biofuels maker includes storage sites
• Acquisition to expand Cargill’s processing footprint in Brazil

Cargill Inc., the world’s largest agricultural trader, agreed to buy plants and storage sites from Brazilian biodiesel maker Granol Industria Comercio e Exportacao SA to expand its soybean operations in the South American nation.

The Minneapolis-based firm will gain three soybean processing plants and four storage facilities in the deal with Granol, according to a Monday statement that didn’t provide terms. Cargill, the largest private company in the US, said the offer is being submitted to Brazil’s antitrust authorities for approval.

The acquisition will expand Cargill’s processing footprint in Brazil, the world’s largest producer and exporter of soybeans, while increasing the company’s biofuel-making capacity. Granol is Brazil’s largest producer of biodiesel, according to the website of the closely held company.

The deal reinforces how Cargill sees Brazil as a strategic player as well as the importance of biodiesel and renewable energy for the company, spokesperson Felipe Fonseca said Monday in an emailed statement.

Brazil C-S Winter Corn Harvest 77% Done as of Aug. 17: AgRural

Compares with 71% in the previous week and 89% a year earlier, consulting firm AgRural says in emailed report.

• Summer 2023/24 corn planting reached 4.6% as of Aug. 17 in the Center-South region, compared to 1.8% a year before

WHEAT/CEPEA: Values drop in Brazil and abroad

Wheat prices are still fading in Brazil. Despite international devaluations of the cereal, pressure on domestic quotations comes from higher supply as the harvest is advancing.

Abroad, wheat prices dropped last week, influenced by the higher volume exported but Russia. However, on Friday, 18, values reacted, due to technical corrections and concerns about the conflicts in Eastern Europe.

Cepea surveys show that, between August 11-18, the prices paid to wheat farmers dropped 4.39% in Paraná and 0.2% in Santa Catarina but increased 0.15% in Rio Grande do Sul. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values decreased 2.54% in SC, 1.98% in PR, 1.45% in RS and 0.44% in São Paulo. In the same period, the US dollar rose 1.4% against the Real, closing at BRL 4.971 on August 18th.

In the United States, the Sept/23 contract for the Soft Read Winter wheat dropped 2.2% at CME Group (Chicago) between August 11-18, to USD 6.1325 (USD 225.33/ton) on Aug. 18th. At Kansas Stock Exchange, the same contract for the Hard Winter wheat decreased 0.3%, to USD 7.5350/bushel (USD 276.86/ton).

At the port of Buenos Aires, wheat prices (FOB) decreased 2.1% between August 11-18, to USD 323/ton on August 18th. It is important to highlight that the average price from Friday, 18, is the lowest of 2023.

CROPS – According to Conab, wheat sowing is over in Brazil, while the harvest is advancing in the states of Goiás (70%), Minas Gerais (35%), Mato Grosso do Sul (12%) and São Paulo (2%) – the volume harvested so far accounts for 3.6% of the total national supply expected to the season.

German Grain Crop Hampered by Constant Rain at Harvest: DBV

Persistent rain during the grain harvest has posed enormous challenges for German farmers and hurt both volumes and crop quality, local farm lobby DBV said in a report Tuesday.

• Grain production could fall below 40m tons, vs 43m tons last year, it said
• In some areas, there is still wheat in fields that should have been harvested long ago
• “The harvest was and is a real challenge, an absolute cliffhanger. We are still not through,” Joachim Rukwied, president of DBV, said Tuesday in an interview with public broadcaster ZDF
  • “Alongside other crops, mainly wheat is still in the fields”
  • “You go out and then the next shower comes and you have to watch the quality deteriorate”
• However, autumn crops — including sugar beet and corn — have benefited from the moisture, DBV said
  • Winter-barley was also mainly collected before the rains set in; harvest estimated at 9.5m tons, up from 8.7m tons last year 

Mexico says won’t modify decree on GM corn ahead of USMCA panel

Mexico rules out further modifying a decree on genetically modified (GM) corn ahead of a dispute settlement panel requested by the United States through the USMCA trade pact, Mexican economy minister Raquel Buenrostro told Reuters on Monday.

Buenrostro’s comments come after the United States last week escalated its objections to the restrictions imposed by Mexico on imports of GM corn and requested a dispute settlement panel under the North American trade pact.

Mexico’s government published in mid-February some modifications to a first decree from the end of 2020 softening a harsh stance on GM corn and allowing its use for animal and industrial food consumption for people, amid a growing dispute with the United States.

The new decree maintained the ban on GM corn for human consumption, which it defined only as that used to make flour with which “tortillas” are made, a staple in the Mexican diet.

“It’s already written (…) it’s already in the decree,” Buenrostro said, referring to the current text which does allow for GM corn in animal food, a key concern for U.S. and Mexican industrialists.

“That is why care was taken to give the definition of corn for human food,” she said, adding that “the current legal framework does not put imports at risk.”

Mexico makes tortillas with non-transgenic white corn, of which it is self-sufficient, but imports around $5 billion annually from the United States, most of it yellow GM grain for livestock feed.

The panel was announced after the failure of formal consultations to resolve deep differences between the two trading partners over GM corn.

Russia plans to extend export duties on sunflowers until end of Aug 2024 -Interfax

Russia plans to extend export duties on sunflowers, oils and sunflower meal until Aug. 31 2024, Interfax news agency reported on Monday citing the economy ministry.

It also said that the sunflower export duty will be calculated from Sept. 1 in roubles instead of U.S. dollars at the rate of 50% but no less than 32,000 roubles ($344.09) per metric ton. Now it stands at 50% but no less than $320.

Rice Supply Faces New Threat as India Mulls More Restrictions

• Government considers export tax for parboiled variety: sources
• Asia prices soared to 2008-high this month on supply concerns

India, the world’s biggest rice exporter, is considering more restrictions on its shipments of the grain as the nation grapples with rising food prices, a move that’s likely to further tighten global supply.

The government is considering imposing a tax on shipments of parboiled rice, according to people familiar with matter. No decision has been made yet and there’s no certainty deliberations will lead to the implementation of duties, said the people, asking not to be identified as the information is confidential.

Rice in Asia soared to the highest level in almost 15 years this month after the South Asian nation announced a ban on some exports and on concerns around the outlook for Thailand’s production. The government of India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has stepped up efforts to cool domestic food prices ahead of an election early next year, recently targeting the rising cost of onions.

A finance ministry spokesperson didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

India has already banned exports of broken rice and non-basmati white rice, curbed shipments of wheat and sugar, and restricted stockpiling of some crops. The nation is also considering abolishing a 40% import levy on wheat and selling tomatoes and grains from state reserves to improve supplies.

Rainfall in key rice growing states of West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Bihar, Chhattisgarh and Andhra Pradesh has been 15% lower than normal so far this season, raising concerns about domestic supply. The staple is the nation’s biggest food grain crop that’s grown during the rainy season.

India Cumulative Monsoon Rainfall 7% Below Normal as of Aug. 21

India has so far received 582.3 millimeters of rains during the current monsoon season, which runs from June through September, compared with a normal of 627.4 millimeters, according to data published by the India Meteorological Department on Aug. 21.

• The eastern and northeastern region got 20% below normal rains
• Rainfall in the northwestern region was at 5% above normal
• Cumulative seasonal rainfall data is compiled by the IMD

More Autonomous Robots to Hit Farms With Solinftec US Expansion

Startup Solinftec, a maker of autonomous farming robots, has doubled its global capacity as a shortage of agricultural workers boosts the appeal of robots and drones.

Following a factory expansion in Indiana, the company backed by the billionaire Trajano family can now produce as many as 800 robots a year in the US, matching the 800-a-year capacity already installed in Brazil, Chief Executive Officer Britaldo Hernandez said in an interview. The US corn belt has just 20 of the company’s robots in use this year; that number will double next year and could reach 250 in 2025, he said.

Solinftec’s robots, which run on solar panels, are designed to use AI to analyze crops and weather, then apply weed killer and pesticides only where it’s needed. The robots can reduce herbicide use by more than 95%, it said. So-called precision agriculture that lets farmers use less can simultaneously support margins and the wider environment. The addition of agricultural robots can also help cut costs in what remains a very tight US labor market.

The company also said Monday it inked partnerships earlier this month with three American cooperatives: Co-Alliance, Carroll Service Co. and Premier Ag.

US Egg Production Rose 3.5% in July From Year Ago: USDA

The US produced 9.37b eggs in July vs 9.06b in the same period a year ago, according to a report from the USDA.

• Output of table eggs rose 3.7% y/y to 8.03b
• Hatching eggs up 2% to 1.34b

US Milk Production Fell 0.6% Y/y in July, USDA Says

Agency releases report on website.

• Output for the 24 major-producing states was 18.26b lbs, 118m less than in July of last year
• Milk per cow averaged 2,047 lbs, a 0.6% decline from last year
• Estimated output for all the US fell 0.5% y/y to 19.075b lbs

 

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