Global Ag News for Apr 30.24

TOP HEADLINES

Argentine Unions Strike to Protest Milei Reforms, Pressure Lawmakers

• Argentine unions representing oilseed and maritime workers went on strike on Monday to protest labor reform legislation backed by President Javier Milei’s administration.
• The strikes occurred as lawmakers in Congress began debating two major economic reform bills proposed by Milei that include privatizations, fiscal tightening, taxes on high salaries, and labor reforms.
• The oilseed union operates in the Rosario area, a key hub for Argentina’s major soybean export industry. Maritime unions also called for protests at Congress.
• Union leaders stated the strikes will continue while Congress is in session debating the bills, which they oppose.
• Milei took office in December vowing deep spending cuts and economic reforms, but has faced resistance from center-left opponents.
• The bills aim to lower the income threshold for paying taxes, part of Milei’s controversial reform package. Some industry groups agree with opposing that tax change but worry about the strikes’ economic impacts.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 6 in SRW, down 6 3/4 in HRW, down 5 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans down 1 1/2; Soymeal up $6.10; Soyoil down 1.23.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 19 3/4 in SRW, down 10 1/2 in HRW, down 1 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 2 1/4; Soybeans up 3 1/4; Soymeal up $15.70; Soyoil down 2.40.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 26 3/4 in SRW, up 64 in HRW, up 49 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 6 3/4; Soybeans down 24 3/4; Soymeal up $19.40; Soyoil down 5.34.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 7.2% in SRW, up 0.4% in HRW, down 4.1% in HRS; Corn is down 6.8%; Soybeans down 10.6%; Soymeal down 8.4%; Soyoil down 11.2%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 24) Soybeans up 20 yuan; Soymeal up 8; Soyoil unchanged; Palm oil down 50; Corn down 1 — Malaysian Palm is down 79.  Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 79 ringgit (-2.02%) at 3836.

There were changes in registrations (1,000 SRW Wheat, 132 Soybeans, 1,873 Soyoil, 200 Soymeal). Registration total: 1,438 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 10 Corn; 631 Soybeans; 2,583 Soyoil; 226 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 29 were: SRW Wheat down 1,302 contracts, HRW Wheat down 4,665, Corn down 39,731, Soybeans down 19,108, Soymeal down 2,423, Soyoil up 1,952.

Midwest: West: Scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Friday. East: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Northern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Wednesday.

Central Plains: Isolated showers Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, below normal northwest and above normal southeast Thursday, near to below normal Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, above normal Monday-Wednesday.

Brazil: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana:  Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias:  Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday.

Argentina: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires:  Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, below normal Wednesday-Friday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires:  Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, below normal Wednesday-Friday.

The player sheet for 4/29 had funds: net sellers of 5,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 500 corn, sellers of 3,500 soybeans, buyers of 5,000 soymeal, and sellers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN, SOYMEAL TENDERS: Algerian state agency ONAB has issued international tenders to purchase up to 160,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 70,000 tons of soymeal.
• EGYPTIAN SUGAR RESERVES: Egypt’s sugar reserves are sufficient until the end of 2024, an agriculture ministry official told Reuters on Sunday. Egypt needs to import only 600 thousand tons of sugar to achieve sufficiency this season, he added. Last month, the cabinet approved a plan to import 1 million tons of sugar to alleviate the country’s sugar shortage.
• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 140,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional origins

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 116,900 metric tonnes of rice
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• WHEAT TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO issued an international tender to sell and export 100,000 metric tons of durum wheat.

 

TODAY

USDA CROP PROGRESS: Winter Wheat Crop 49% Good/Excellent

Highlights from the report:

• Winter wheat 49% G/E vs 50% last week, and 28% a year ago
• Corn planted 27% vs 12% last week, and 23% a year ago
• Corn emerged 7% vs 3% last week, and 5% a year ago
• Soybeans planted 18% vs 8% last week, and 16% a year ago
• Spring wheat planted 34% vs 15% last week, and 10% a year ago
• Spring wheat emerged 5% vs 2% last week, and 2% a year ago
• Cotton planted 15% vs 11% last week, and 14% a year ago
• Sorghum planted 19% vs 17% last week, and 20% a year ago

CROP SURVEY: US Soybean Crush and Corn for Ethanol

The following is from a Bloomberg survey of six anlaysts.

• Soybean crush seen at 205.6m bu in March, a 3.9% rise from a year ago
• Crude and once-refined soybean-oil reserves at end of March seen at 2.315b lbs, down from 2.388b
• Corn used in ethanol production seen up 6.5% y/y to 464.5

US Inspected 1.226m Tons of Corn for Export, 250k of Soybeans

In week ending April 25, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Soybeans: 250k tons vs 444k the previous wk, 408k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,226k tons vs 1,661k the previous wk, 1,519k a yr ago
• Wheat: 481k tons vs 450k the previous wk, 366k a yr ago

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: April 25

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending April 25 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for Japan-bound shipments made up 84k tons of the 250k total inspected
• Japan was the top destination for corn inspections, China led in wheat

Argentine Unions Strike to Protest Milei Reforms, Pressure Lawmakers

• Argentine unions representing oilseed and maritime workers went on strike on Monday to protest labor reform legislation backed by President Javier Milei’s administration.
• The strikes occurred as lawmakers in Congress began debating two major economic reform bills proposed by Milei that include privatizations, fiscal tightening, taxes on high salaries, and labor reforms.
• The oilseed union operates in the Rosario area, a key hub for Argentina’s major soybean export industry. Maritime unions also called for protests at Congress.
• Union leaders stated the strikes will continue while Congress is in session debating the bills, which they oppose.
• Milei took office in December vowing deep spending cuts and economic reforms, but has faced resistance from center-left opponents.
• The bills aim to lower the income threshold for paying taxes, part of Milei’s controversial reform package. Some industry groups agree with opposing that tax change but worry about the strikes’ economic impacts.

Brazil 2023/2024 Total Corn Crop Seen At 115.85 Million Tns Versus 114.9 Million Tns In Previous Forecast – Datagro

• BRAZIL 2023/2024 SOYBEAN CROP SEEN AT 147.9 MILLION TNS VERSUS 146.3 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – DATAGRO CONSULTANCY
• BRAZIL 2023/2024 TOTAL CORN CROP SEEN AT 115.85 MILLION TNS VERSUS 114.9 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – DATAGRO

Indonesia Feb. Palm Oil Exports Fall to 2.17m Tons: Gapki

Indonesia’s palm oil exports fell to 2.17m tons in Feb., from 2.81m tons in Jan., according to the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki).

• Export volume tends to decline due to unfavorable economic growth of importing countries and increasing supply of other vegetable oils, Chairman Eddy Martono says in briefing on Tuesday
• Palm oil output fell to 4.25m tons vs. 4.63m tons in Jan.
• Palm oil stockpiles rose to 3.26m tons, from revised 3.03m tons in Jan.
• Palm oil domestic consumption fell to 1.86m tons, from 1.94m tons in Jan.
• Palm oil for biodiesel domestic consumption fell to 920,000 tons, from 956,000 tons in Jan.

Indonesia Sets CPO Reference Price at $877.28/Ton for May

The trade ministry sets its crude palm oil reference price for May at $877.28 per ton, Farid Amir, director for export of agriculture and forestry products at the ministry, says in a text message.

The reference price will keep the CPO export tax for the period at $52/ton and the additional levy at $90/ton

Malaysia April Palm Oil Exports Fall to 1.144m Tons: AmSpec

Malaysia’s palm oil exports fell to 1.144m tons in April from 1.292m tons in March, according to AmSpec Agri.

Malaysia April Palm Oil Exports -8.97% M/m: Intertek

Following is a summary of Malaysia’s April palm oil exports according to Intertek Testing Services.

• Total exports for April 2024: 1.214m tons
• Crude palm oil exports: 237,125 tons, 19.5% of total
• EU led all destinations for total exports: 369,585 tons

WHEAT/CEPEA: Lower prices, weather and high costs can discourage planting in 2024

After moving up over the last four crops, rising more than 70% between 2019 and 2023, the area planted with wheat may decrease this year. Cepea researchers say that lower price levels, weather uncertainties and high costs explain the possible area decrease.

Conab estimates a 4.7% decrease of the area in relation to the previous season, pressed by the reduction of 7% in the South; as for the Southeast and the Central-West, Conab projects increases.

Seab/Deral, in turn, forecasts a 19% decrease of the wheat area in Paraná, to 1.14 million hectares. In spite of that, the production is expected to move up 4% in the same comparison, at 3.8 million tons in the state, because of the higher productivity.

DOMESTIC MARKET – In April, the monthly average of wheat prices in Paraná was BRL 1,264.74 per ton, 1.9% more than in March/24, but downing 20.7% compared to April/23, in nominal terms. In Rio Grande do Sul, the average was BRL 1,196.12/ton, rising 1.9% in one month, but moving down 15.5% in one year. In São Paulo, prices averaged BRL 1.304.92/ton, +6.7% and -23.7% in the same comparisons.

According to data from Cepea, between April 19 and 26, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) increased 0.62% in Santa Catarina, 0.64% in Rio Grande do Sul and 1.62% in Paraná. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values rose 0.91% in São Paulo, 3.92% in Paraná, 0.42% in Rio Grande do Sul and 1.22% in Santa Catarina. Dollar quotations dropped 1.52% against Real, at BRL 5.116 on April 26.

BYPRODUCTS – The demand for wheat bran and flour continues limited. From April 19-26, values of wheat bran in bags decreased 0.64% and prices of the product in bulk, 0.68%.

EXPORTS – According to data from Secex, Brazil imported 329.76 thousand tons of wheat up to the third week of April, below the 312.71 thousand tons registered in April last year. Exports totaled 382.8 thousand tons, against 280.65 thousand tons in the same month of 2023.

US Urea, Phosphate, Potash Prices Weaken as Global Demand Pauses

Urea and potash prices continued to fall this week at many inland US locations, though New Orleans urea barges rebounded slightly after several weeks of decline. NOLA potash weakened to $300 a short ton as the industry waits for long-term contracts. Chinese potash inventory is swollen at double the strategic-reserve level, pushing a contract delay.

 

 

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