Global Ag News for Apr 26.23
Poland Signals Won’t Lift Ukraine Grain Import Ban in June
“It’s absolutely impossible” for Poland to lift its temporary ban on Ukraine grain imports in June as initially indicated, Development Minister Waldemar Buda tells Radio Zet in an interview.
- Lifting the embargo would “lead to a situation, where after the harvest in Ukraine silos fill up again, the same silos we’re so determined to empty right now,” according to the minister
FUTURES & WEATHER
Wheat prices overnight are up 2 1/4 in SRW, down 1 in HRW, up 1 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/4; Soybeans up 4 1/2; Soymeal up $0.20; Soyoil up 0.10.
For the week so far wheat prices are down 17 3/4 in SRW, down 23 1/2 in HRW, down 8 in HRS; Corn is down 6 1/4; Soybeans down 27; Soymeal down $8.40; Soyoil down 1.33.
For the month to date wheat prices are down 49 1/4 in SRW, down 59 3/4 in HRW, down 59 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 27; Soybeans down 53 1/2; Soymeal down $26.10; Soyoil down 3.38.
Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 19.1% in SRW, down 7.9% in HRW, down 10.6% in HRS; Corn is down 4.4%; Soybeans down 4.6%; Soymeal down 9.2%; Soyoil down 18.9%.
Chinese Ag futures (JUL 23) Soybeans down 23 yuan; Soymeal up 26; Soyoil down 28; Palm oil down 26; Corn up 15 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 55 ringgit (-1.51%) at 3580.
There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 2,389 SRW Wheat contracts; 23 Oats; 11 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 603 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 1 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 25 were: SRW Wheat down 5,347 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,627, Corn down 17,380, Soybeans down 21,209, Soymeal down 11,111, Soyoil up 3,398.
Northern Plains Forecast: Below-normal temperatures continue in the Northern Plains for the next week, but will still be warm enough to continue melting the snowpack in the region. A system moving through later this week will bring in scattered showers, mostly in the form of rain despite the cooler temperatures. Rain should not be heavy enough to increase pressure on the ongoing flooding across the Red River by too much, but the colder temperatures will slow the drying process, limiting fieldwork and planting.
Central/Southern Plains Forecast: A system will bring widespread showers to the drought areas of the Central and Southern Plains over the next few days, and could be substantial in some areas. That will help to reduce the impact of the drought, but won’t make much of a dent in it. Additional showers could be possible late this week with another system. Wheat may not benefit from the rain too much due to poor conditions, but the increased soil moisture would favor corn and soybean planting and establishment.
Midwest Forecast: Cold air produced frosts and freezes in the Midwest over the last few mornings. Additional frosts continue this week. The cold air may cause damage to more-developed wheat and emergent corn and soybeans. Showers will be limited for most of the week, but a system will come through late week and weekend with widespread showers, mostly in the form of rain. Cooler temperatures will generally be in place into early May, unfavorable for planting and somewhat dangerous for additional frosts.
Delta Forecast: Scattered showers are expected in the Delta with a couple of systems this week. Many areas of the region are wet, limiting spring planting. Areas that have been able to plant will find good conditions for germination and early growth, though temperatures will be on the cooler end of normal through the end of the month. Northern areas may catch a frost as well.
Canadian Prairies Forecast: Below-normal temperatures continue to limit melting of the heavy snowpack across the eastern Canadian Prairies. Western areas with less snow cover should see higher temperatures, but only slightly. The overall cooler nature will continue to limit or prohibit fieldwork and seeding across the east, but western areas may see a window opening. Some showers will move through with a system this week, being a mix of rain and snow, but should dry out afterward.
Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: A system brought some showers to northern Argentina over the last couple of days. Most of the agricultural areas missed out and conditions are favorable for harvesting a severely damaged crop. Winter wheat areas are in need of more moisture as the crop will start to be planted in the next week or two. A system moving through Sunday and Monday may provide some of that needed moisture.
The player sheet for 4/25 had funds: net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 2,500 corn, sellers of 6,500 soybeans, sellers of 750 soymeal, and sellers of 1,750 soyoil.
- MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 75,000 tonnes of soft milling wheat
- MILLING WHEAT TENDER: A group of South Korean flour mills issued a tender to purchase around 95,000 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States and Australia.
- MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to buy soft milling wheat for shipment to two ports only.
- RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 43,500 tonnes of rice
- WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.
- BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley.
- WHEAT TENDER: Iraq’s state grains buyer has issued a tender to buy a nominal 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat with participation restricted to a limited number of trading houses
ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report
Output and stockpile projections for the week ending April 21 are based on six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
- Production seen lower than last week at 1.006m b/d
- Stockpile avg est. 25.311m bbl vs 25.293m a week ago
Brazil soy exports seen reaching 14.71 mln tns in April – Anec
- BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 14.71 MILLION TNS IN APRIL VERSUS 15.15 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS ESTIMATE – ANEC
- BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 166,552 TNS IN APRIL VERSUS 186,552 TNS IN PREVIOUS ESTIMATE – ANEC
- BRAZIL WHEAT EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 212,556 TNS IN APRIL VERSUS 207,600 TNS IN PREVIOUS ESTIMATE – ANEC
- BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.9 MILLION TNS IN APRIL VERSUS 2.04 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS ESTIMATE – ANEC
Hungary to Keep Ukraine Grain Import Ban to Year-End: Minister
Hungary’s government wants to keep a ban on Ukrainian grain imports in place until year-end and seeks to add restrictions on a wider selection of agricultural products, state news agency MTI reports, citing Agriculture Minister Istvan Nagy in Luxembourg.
- The European Union accepted unilateral bans imposed on Ukrainian grain imports by Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Bulgaria, according to Nagy, and an agreement will be reached soon to keep the restrictions in place
- Hungary wants to expand the ban to products in addition to those recommended by the EU, which include wheat, rapeseed, maize, sunflower and sunflower oil, but “further negotiations are needed,” according to Nagy
Austrian Farmers Oppose Ukraine Grain Sales in EU: Standard
European Union must ensure Ukraine grain isn’t sold within bloc’s domestic market as a consequence of transit agreement, Vienna’s Der Standard newspaper reports, citing Austrian Chamber of Agriculture
- “Even if the goods do not physically arrive in Austria, the market turmoil and price declines are already being massively felt:” Chamber of Agriculture statement to Der Standard
- Regulation necessary to support grain transit to third countries
- Farmers warn over market distortions created by wholesale import of lower-priced Ukraine grain: Standard
USDA attaché sees Brazil 2023/24 soy crop at 159 million T
Following are selected highlights from a report issued Tuesday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service post in Brasilia:
“Post forecasts that Brazilian producers will expand soybean planted area to reach 45.2 million hectares (ha) in 2023/24 season, up from the estimated 43.5 million ha planted in the 2022/23 season. Post forecasts 2023/24 soybean production at 159 million metric tons (MMT), up from the estimated 152.5 MMT harvest this season. Soybean expansion is forecast on current market conditions and trends – including strong demand, high prices, and a favorable exchange rate. All these conditions are expected to persist well into the 2023/24 season. Soybean exports are forecast to hit records this season and next at 95 MMT and then 98.1 MMT. Peanut planted area and production are also forecast to rise on the same factors. Cottonseed area and production are forecasted to rise in the 2023/24 season based on the same factors and a rise in global demand.”
USDA attaché sees Argentina’s wheat, corn output rebounding in 2023/24
Following are selected highlights from a report issued on Tuesday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service post in Buenos Aires:
“Post estimates Argentine wheat production to rebound to 19.5 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2023/24, resulting in wheat exports of 13.7 MMT (including wheat flour as its wheat equivalent). However after the severe drought in MY 2022/23, more rains are needed to recharge soil moisture profiles before the June planting window. Barley exports in MY 2023/24 are forecast up 13 percent at 2.6 MMT on higher production, though exporters are concerned that China may switch back purchases to Australia. Post projects MY 2023/24 corn production up at 54.0 MMT on a return to normal weather. Corn exports are forecast at 38 million tons. Rice exports in MY 2023/24 are also expected to rebound as result of a recovery in production.”
Wheat Farmers Ask Canada to Step in as Strike Threatens Exports
- Group says government should authorize third party inspectors
- Protests could disrupt already tight supplies amid Ukraine war
The Wheat Growers Association is calling for the Canadian government to allow outside workers to weigh and inspect grain at a Vancouver port as a massive strike by public sector workers threatens shipments.
Unionized inspectors at the Cascadia Terminal have purposely targeted the port, according to a news release by the group, which advocates for farmers. The protests could further tighten global supplies already affected by the war in Ukraine.
“A strike is one thing, but to intentionally target a port that is critical to the lives of grain farmers and to the entire Canadian economy is the height of reckless irresponsibility,” the group’s President, Gunter Jochum, said in the release.
Last week Keystone Agricultural Producers of Manitoba and the Agricultural Producers Association of Saskatchewan, also warned the strike could cause delays inspecting grain before it’s loaded onto ships as well as disrupt efforts to bring temporary workers into Canada in time for the spring planting season.
China plans to grow 88 per cent of grain by 2032 in food security drive
China has significantly raised its grain self-sufficiency projections over the next decade by pledging to build a “diversified food supply system”, a move that has the potential to affect corn and soybean farmers in the United States and rice exporters in Thailand and Vietnam.
- The flagship Agricultural Outlook Report for 2023-32 by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs sets out China’s plan to grow 88.4 per cent of the grain – mainly referring to rice, wheat, corn and soybeans – it needs within a decade from the current level of 82 per cent.
- It also planned to reduce grain imports to 122 million metric tonnes from last year’s 146.9 million, said the report released by the agriculture ministry’s outlook committee on Monday.
- “The foundation of grain security will be consolidated steadily,” it said, citing Beijing’s efforts to tap growth potential by increasing farming acreage and promoting higher-yield seeds, farming machinery and technology.
- “The agricultural trade structure will be changed significantly, with grain imports expected to fall 16 per cent over the next 10 years.”
- President Xi Jinping has previously called for “Chinese people to hold the rice bowl in their own hands”, while in March, new Premier Li Qiang encouraged farmers to grow more crops.
- Xi also said at the end of last year that the global market turbulence caused by the Ukraine war had shown that agriculture was a “national security issue of extreme importance” amid the economic rivalry with the United States and other global geopolitical uncertainties.
- Bulk purchases of agricultural products, mainly corn and soybeans, have often been used by Beijing to sweeten ties with the US or leverage its demands during negotiations.
- Beijing’s promise to buy a large amount of US soybeans and corn under the phase-one trade deal that was signed in early 2020 led to a significant rise in American agricultural exports over the past three years, although the two-year agreement expired in 2022.
- China became the largest agricultural export market for the US last year, with shipments worth a record high of US$36.4 billion, including a record high soybean export total of US$16.4 billion, according to a report released by the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service in January.
- “China does not have too much trouble with grain self- sufficiency now, but its soybean production is a more obvious shortcoming,” said Weng Ming, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
- Domestic soybean production in China is set to grow at an annual rate of 7 per cent over the next 10 years, to lift the self-sufficiency ratio from 18.5 to 30 per cent.
- China’s soybean imports could fall to 83.6 million metric tonnes by 2032, while corn imports would fall below 7 million metric tonnes from last year’s 20.6 million, the report estimated.
- Its soybean imports dropped by 5.6 per cent year on year to 91.1 million metric tonnes last year, with Brazil providing 59.7 per cent and the US 32.4 per cent, according to China’s Ministry of Commerce.
- Total purchases of US corn dropped by a quarter to 14.9 million metric tonnes last year, or 72 per cent of the total.
- “Although we have seen many recent technological breakthroughs in China’s agricultural sector, the biggest hurdle remains their practical application on farmland, and Beijing’s policies need to be practically implemented in the countryside,” Weng said.
- China still needed to defend its farmland as local governments tended to sell more land for property and industrial development, which was forcing policymakers to increase grain yields through technology applications, Weng added.
- Authorities have already pledged to ensure China has a total arable land of no less than 120 million hectares in its 14th five-year plan for 2021-25, and to ensure food self-sufficiency.
- Geopolitics have disrupted food supply chains and raised prices, while tensions with the West potentially threaten food imports.
- The flagship agricultural outlook report for 2023-32 also outlined a plan to increase rice exports by 24 per cent in the next 10 years, which could affect the likes of Thailand and Vietnam.
- Meanwhile, China also plans to increase the self-sufficiency ratio of oil crops – including soybeans, peanuts, rapeseed and sesame – from 32 per cent this year to 43.8 per cent by 2032.
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