Global Ag News for Apr 16.24

TOP HEADLINES

USDA ‘Hopeful’ to See Jet Fuel Tax Credit Update by End of Month

US Department of Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said he is hopeful the revised tax credit model for corn ethanol and other raw materials used to make sustainable aviation fuel will be released by the end of April.

• The Energy Department’s so-called GREET model had been expected by March 1
• Vilsack spoke at the North American Agricultural Journalists’ annual meeting in Washington

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 2 3/4 in SRW, down 2 1/2 in HRW, up 5 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans down 2; Soymeal up $1.10; Soyoil down 0.55.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 6 in SRW, down 8 3/4 in HRW, unchanged in HRS; Corn is down 4 1/2; Soybeans down 16 3/4; Soymeal down $3.40; Soyoil down 0.99.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 11 in SRW, down 1 1/2 in HRW, down 2 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 11 3/4; Soybeans down 35 1/4; Soymeal down $0.30; Soyoil down 3.02.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 12.6% in SRW, down 9.4% in HRW, down 11.2% in HRS; Corn is down 8.7%; Soybeans down 10.6%; Soymeal down 11.9%; Soyoil down 6.1%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 24) Soybeans down 27 yuan; Soymeal up 22; Soyoil down 106; Palm oil down 164; Corn down 10 — Malaysian Palm is down 69. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 69 ringgit (-1.64%) at 4135.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 438 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 37 Corn; 499 Soybeans; 710 Soyoil; 26 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 15 were: SRW Wheat down 145 contracts, HRW Wheat down 2,488, Corn down 8,889, Soybeans up 2,049, Soymeal down 9,407, Soyoil up 9,760.

Northern Plains: Outside of a couple of isolated showers, it was quiet over the weekend. A storm in the West will bring widespread showers to the region for the front half of the week, which may include some breezy winds at times. Cold air will fill in behind the system through the weekend before temperatures rise back up above normal again next week. Despite some areas of heavier rain, large-scale delays to early planting are not expected.

Central/Southern Plains: It was warm and dry over the weekend. A strong storm system will slowly move through the region this week. Even so, only limited areas of good precipitation are forecast, and the driest areas in the southwest are not among them. Instead, strong winds will likely dry out soils more than they already are and severe storms will roll through the region as well. Behind the system, temperatures will drop significantly late this week and weekend and could produce frost damage for winter wheat.

Midwest: A system exited to the east late last week but not before dumping a lot of rain in areas that have been more active than usual, leading to some flooding. Rising temperatures and ample sunshine over the weekend probably helped to quickly reduce areas of significant flooding, however. A long and drawn-out storm system will move through this week and produce more widespread precipitation. Areas in the west that are still in drought will get some good amounts to move through, though wetter areas in the east should as well. Severe storms are also forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday. The system will bring in some colder air late this week and weekend for a few days but widespread frosts are not forecast in wheat areas.

Delta: Heavy rain has led to areas of water-logged soils and flooding, which will slow planting down for a while. It was warm and dry over the weekend which will help out some areas, though. A long and drawn-out system will bring through a few rounds of showers this week that will keep soils wet, but probably won’t be enough to make it worse. The region may or may not get more of a break next week if the busy pattern slows down a bit.

Brazil: Scattered showers were numerous over the weekend except in the northeast where it was dry. A front will go sweeping through the country this week and showers will get more isolated as the week wears on, though they will continue over the north. The consistent wet season showers will be winding down behind this front and fronts coming north from Argentina will become the main source of precipitation thereafter. That does not bode well for safrinha corn in central Brazil that still has below-normal subsoil moisture and will run out quickly in May as more of the crop goes through pollination and fill. Southern areas have seen some improvement lately, but are not in great shape either. The chances for this area to get some needed rain in the future is higher though.

Argentina: A front and system formed over the weekend and brought widespread showers through most of the country over the weekend and continues through Monday before drying out for the rest of the week. With harvest continuing to increase for corn and soybeans, the drier forecast will be more favorable. It does look like a system will go through with showers this weekend, however.

Europe: A front moved into the continent over the weekend, but a system is following behind it for the week, bringing showers that favor the eastern two-thirds of the continent into the weekend. Colder air will be flowing into much of the continent as well, though frosts are likely to be limited to agricultural lands at higher elevation than the majority of the region. Still, spotty frosts could cause some damage to wheat and delay corn and other summer crop planting. France and the UK are still too wet and the pattern does not favor drying them out.

Black Sea: Some isolated showers moved through over the weekend, but most areas have stayed unfavorably dry. A front that is settling into the region will be bringing some areas good rainfall, but missing others, even though the system will be in the region throughout the week and weekend. The wheat areas in eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia will be the driest. Meanwhile, western and northern areas of the region that grow more corn should get some needed moisture as planting starts up in some areas. This could cause delays, but producers there will welcome the rainfall. Colder temperatures will be moving in as well, but frosty temperatures are expected to avoid most of the primary wheat areas to the north and west.

Australia: Limited showers went through a small portion of the southwest over the weekend. Otherwise, it was unfavorably dry. Outside of a small area in the northeast, most of the country will be dry for the next week as well. Cotton and sorghum harvest continues to increase in favorable condition. But wheat and canola are being planted in fair to poor soil moisture for the most part. This could cause delays to planting. The ending El Nino and eventual turn to La Nina should favor the winter crops later this year.

The player sheet for 4/15 had funds: net sellers of 1,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 1,500 corn, sellers of 6,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,500 soymeal, and sellers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Egyptian state grains buyer the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) is seeking wheat in an international purchasing tender. The deadline for offers is April 16.
• SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tonnes of soymeal
• CORN SALE: Exporters sold 165,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to Mexico, of which 135,000 tons is for 2023/24 delivery and 30,000 tons is for 2024/25 delivery, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.
• CORN PURCHASES: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) purchased around 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal on Friday without issuing an international tender.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 

 

TODAY

USDA CROP PROGRESS: Corn Crop 6% Planted, Soybeans 3% Planted

Highlights from the report:

• Corn planted 6% vs 3% last week, and 7% a year ago
• Soybeans planted 3% vs 3% a year ago
• Winter wheat 55% G/E vs 56% last week, and 27% a year ago
• Spring wheat planted 7% vs 3% last week, and 2% a year ago
• Cotton planted 8% vs 5% last week, and 7% a year ago

US Inspected 1.332m Tons of Corn for Export, 433k of Soybeans

In week ending April 11, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Soybeans: 433k tons vs 492k the previous wk, 530k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,332k tons vs 1,443k the previous wk, 1,237k a yr ago
• Wheat: 551k tons vs 517k the previous wk, 277k a yr ago

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: April 11

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending April 11 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 200k tons of the 433k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, China led in wheat

NOPA March US soybean crush hits record 196.406 million bushels

U.S. soy crushers processed more soybeans in March than any previous month on record, although the daily crush pace slowed slightly from a record high in February, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Monday.

NOPA members, which account for around 95% of soybeans crushed in the United States, processed 196.406 million bushels of soybeans last month, up 5.5% from 186.194 million bushels in February and up 5.7% from 185.810 million bushels in March 2023.

The historically large crush eclipsed the previous monthly record of 195.328 million bushels set in December 2023. The average daily crush rate, however, dipped to 6.336 million bushels, down from the record 6.420 million bushels a day in February, NOPA data showed.

U.S. soy processors have expanded crushing capacity and opened new plants to capitalize on rising demand for vegetable oils from renewable fuels producers, pushing crush rates in recent months to new highs.

NOPA’s March crush data included new member White River Soy Processing and two plants it recently bought from Benson Hill, which is no longer a member, NOPA said. NOPA’s March crush was below the average trade estimate of 197.787 million bushels in a Reuters survey of eight analysts. Estimates ranged from 196.000 million to 202.500 million bushels, with a median of 197.248 million bushels.

Soyoil stocks among NOPA members as of March 31 rose to 1.851 billion lbs, up 9.5% from the 1.690 billion lbs on hand at the end of February and the largest end-of-month supply since May. Analysts, on average, had expected stocks to rise to 1.792 billion lbs, according to estimates from six analysts. Soyoil stocks estimates ranged from 1.725 billion to 1.927 billion lbs, with a median of 1.780 billion lbs.

Ukraine’s Winter Grain Condition Is Good, Weather Center Says

Ukraine’s winter grains, wheat and barley, are in good condition after unusually warm temperatures since January have helped plants to withstand two weeks without precipitation this month, according to the state-controlled Hydrometeorological Center.

• Winter grains resumed growing in early February in western Ukrainian regions, earlier than ever before, Tetiana Adamenko, head of the agriculture department at the center, said by phone
  • Winter grains in all areas resumed growth earlier than usual
• Winter grain harvest may be on par with previous year or even higher, Adamenko says
• Colder weather with rains is expected in the coming days in most of Ukraine and will replenish soil moisture for winter crops and spring grains

USDA attaché sees Ukraine’s grain production, exports down in 2024/25

April 15 (Reuters) – Following are selected highlights from a report released on Tuesday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service post in Kyiv:

“Grain production in Ukraine has remained unprofitable since the Russia’s invasion, and this is expected to translate into decreased grain area for MY (marketing year) 2024/25. With CY (calendar year) 2024 yields forecast below the previous near-record-breaking CY2023, the total grain MY2024/25 production volume is forecast to be lower than for the previous marketing year. Exports are also forecast to be down, but improved port logistics in the Black Sea are supporting exports and resulting in low ending stocks estimated and forecast for MY2023/24 and MY2024/25. The EU became the primary market for Ukrainian grains for MY2023/24 due to the temporary suspension of import duties and quotas, and this is expected to continue in MY2024/25.”

WHEAT/CEPEA: Producers are away from trades, and prices move up

Wheat prices increased last week in the domestic market, influenced by the fact that producers are away from trades – those who still have high-quality product in this offseason period prefer to wait for better opportunities. Many producers are refrained from the market because they are focused on conditions of both crops and the weather – the planting period is close in Southern Brazil and, for now, estimates indicate a smaller area. Producers are also focused on the international market, especially on conflicts in the Middle East.

Therefore, although prices increased, the pace of trades continued slow. According to data from Cepea, between April 5 and 12, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) upped 0.39% in Santa Catarina, 4.19% in Rio Grande do Sul and 0.7% in Paraná. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values increased 2.18% in São Paulo, 0.74% in Paraná, 1.94% in Rio Grande do Sul and 0.28% in Santa Catarina. Dollar quotations valued 1.2% against Real, at BRL 5.125 on April 12.

BYPRODUCTS – The demand for byproducts continues low, which kept prices in a downward trend. From April 5-12, values of wheat bran in bags dropped 1.64% and prices of the product in bulk, 0.71%.

PROJECTIONS – This month, Conab has indicated that the national wheat area may total 3.3 million hectares, 4.7% lower than in the crop before. Productivity, in turn, is likely to increase 26.1% in the same comparison. Therefore, production may total 9.72 million tons, 20.2% up against that in 2023. Conab says that imports are estimated at 5.5 million tons from August/24 to July/25. The domestic availability is expected at 15.42 million tons, and the consumption, at 12.62 million tons. Exports continue forecast at 2 million tons.

In global terms, the USDA indicates harvest of 787.36 million tons, practically stable in relation to the previous report (786.7 million tons), but downing 0.3% compared to the crop before. As for Brazil, the volume produced continues projected at 8.1 million tons.

According to data from Secex, 103 thousand tons of wheat were imported by Brazil in early April, accounting for 33% of the volume registered in April 2023. Exports, in turn, totaled 295.48 thousand tons in the first five working days of April.

Brazil’s 2023/24 soybean harvest hits 84%, says AgRural

Brazil’s soybean harvest for the 2023/24 cycle had reached 84% of the planted area as of Thursday, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday, up 6 percentage points from the previous week. The figure was below the 86% seen at the same time a year earlier.

AgRural analysts said in a statement that harvesting is now concentrated in Brazil’s southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul, where farmers had accelerated work before heavy rains expected this week, as well as in the Northeastern states of Bahia and Piaui. So far, productivity in Rio Grande do Sul is very good, according to the consultancy firm.

AgRural also said Brazil’s second corn crop, which represents about 75% of the national production each year, had last week seen rains in regions in which the crop had been struggling due to high temperatures and lack of regular rainfall in areas like the states of Parana, Sao Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul.

However, the showers were not well distributed and worries remain over the crop, especially in Parana’s western and Sao Paulo’s southern areas, according to AgRural.

Second-corn crop in Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais states had been developing really well and rains expected for the second half of April raised expectations of a good cycle in these states, especially in areas where farmers had planted their fields earlier in the season, it added. Brazil’s second corn crop is planted after soybeans are harvested from the same fields. Planting was finalized last month.

China pork output logs first decline for a first quarter in four years

China’s pork output for January-March fell, the first decline for a first quarter in four years as farmers slaughtered fewer pigs to support a recovery in hog prices.

Pork production is normally high during the first quarter due to a surge in slaughtering for China’s Lunar New Year holidays around February, but meat sales this peak season were sluggish due to a slowdown in the economy.

Pork output eased 0.4% from a year ago to 15.83 million tonnes with China slaughtering 194.55 million hogs, a decline of 2.2%, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Tuesday.

Farmers in China had ramped up slaughter late last year to cut losses amid an outbreak of African swine fever and due to excessive supply in the market that led to plummeting prices.

China, which consumes about half of the world’s pork, has encouraged pig enterprises to reduce hog capacity after an aggressive expansion led to a multi-year slump in hog prices. It has also lowered the national target for normal retention of breeding sows to 39 million from 41 million this year.

The supply of hogs in China is, however, still expected to exceed demand due to high numbers of productive sows and a reluctance by companies to destock after making large investments. China’s pig herd size at the end of March was down 5.2% to 408.5 million heads, the data showed.

Australia’s weather bureau says El Nino has ended, unsure about La Nina – Reuters News

An El Nino weather event has ended, Australian weather authorities said on Tuesday, adding that they were uncertain if a La Nina phenomenon would form later this year, as other forecasters have predicted.

The cycle between the two is hugely important for farmers worldwide. El Nino generally brings hotter, drier weather to eastern Australia and Southeast Asia and wetter conditions to the Americas, while a La Nina has the opposite effect.

“El Nino has ended,” Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said, after the weather phenomenon had formed in the middle of last year following three years of La Nina.

Warmer sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific cause El Nino and cooler temperatures lead to La Nina, which a U.S. government weather forecaster this month gave a 60% chance of emerging in the second half of 2024.

The sea surface has been cooling since December and oceanic and atmospheric indicators now show the El Niño–Southern Oscillation has returned to neutral, the Australian weather bureau added.

“Climate models indicate ENSO will likely continue to be neutral until at least July 2024,” it said, using the formal . name, the El Niño Southern Oscillation, that describes the switch between the two phases.

While some climate models predict a flip to La Nina later this year, the bureau said it was uncertain whether this would happen and urged caution about such forecasts.

 

 

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