Written Commentary
ADM Reports Q4 and Full-year 2025 Results
February 3, 2026
CRUDE OIL
March Crude Oil was modestly higher early Tuesday. Geopolitical concerns that have supported the market recently have not eased. On Monday the US Department of Transportation’s Maritime Administration advised US-flagged commercial vessels to stay as far from Iran’s territorial waters as possible and to verbally decline Iranian forces’ permission to board if asked. Iran has in the past threatened to close down the Strait of Hormuz, a portion of which lies within its territorial waters.
PRODUCTS
March RBOB was near unchanged early Tuesday following a move to its highest level since June on Monday. The nearby contract has reached its highest level since November, and he weekly chart is pushing up against resistance at the 50-week moving average at 2.0074. This is despite US gasoline stocks at their highest level in at least five years. March ULSD was moderately lower and inside Monday’s range.
NATURAL GAS
March Natural Gas extended Monday’s selloff early Tuesday but managed to crawl back towards unchanged as the session progressed. The 6-10 and 8-14 day maps show above normal temperature dominating the eastern two-thirds of the lower 48 states, with normal and below temperatures emerging in the west. This should limit further reductions in US storage beyond this week’s report that will cover the week ending February 6.
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