Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q4 2025
December 22, 2025
CRUDE OIL
February Crude Oil was moderately higher early Tuesday, trading just above Monday’s highs. The market continues to draw support from the US actions against oil tankers in and around Venezuela. President Trump’s comments yesterday that the US may “keep or sell” the oil from the ship they have seized has traders guessing whether it will mean tighter or looser supplies. But Trump’s announced blockade of all oil tankers under sanctions entering and leaving Venezuela has kept vessel owners on alert and appears to have effectively shut down Venezuelan export for now. It also keeps risk levels high. Reuters reported that tanker loading in Venezuela dwindled on Monday, with most ships moving oil cargoes only between domestic ports. They also reported that discounts for Russian ESPO Blend crude loading in January have widened to a record $7 to $8 per barrel against Brent upon delivery in Chinese ports, due to Western sanctions. China’s private independent refiners are reportedly showing interest in Russian crude, but state refiners are still avoiding.
PRODUCTS
Like crude oil, February RBOB and ULSD are holding their own against Monday’s sharp gains. US gasoline demand may benefit from the holiday, while diesel demand may be pressured by the warmer than normal temps across the US.
NATURAL GAS
February Natural Gas was higher early Tuesday but inside Monday’s wide range. While the weather forecast for the US remains mild, it is possible that the 1.555 decline (-31%) in the space of two weeks may have more than compensated for the reduced demand expectations. The latest 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts have not change much since yesterday, but are perhaps a bit less bearish, as they show below normal temperatures across a larger portion of New England and perhaps a larger area of normal temps in the northern Great Lakes and middle Atlantic states than previously.
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