Funds Continue to Whipsaw Grains


Historic US election day. Grains are higher. SF is up 12 cents and near 10.65. SMZ is near 378.4. BOZ is near 33.74. CZ is up 3 cents and near 4.01. WZ is up 5 cents and near 6.12. KWZ is up 6 cents and near 5.59. Funds continue to whip saw grain markets. US stocks are sharply higher. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. US Dollar is lower.

Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 11 yuan in soybeans, down 32 in Corn, down 8 in Soymeal, up 94 in Soyoil, and up 48 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 94 ringgit at 3,069 (basis January) on improved exports.

US corn harvest is 82 pct done, soybean 87. 43 pct of US winter wheat is rated 43 pct good/ex.

Cat 4 hurricane to slam into central America. Heavy winds and up to 25 inches or rain is possible.

AgResource estimates US corn crop at 14,635 versus USDA 14,722, Carryout 2,030, USDA 2,167.

Brazil, Argentina and Russia 2 week weather forecast calls for mostly dry weather.

US election could determine US and China future relations and their demand for US Ag products.

USDA is expected to tighten US 2020/21 corn and soybean carryouts in their Nov guess US corn exports at 270 mil bu vs 148 ly, Soybeans 609 vs 351 ly and wheat 417 vs 401 ly.

Increase US Covid cases could reduce fuel and food demand. Reduce ethanol demand, talk of lower World corn supplies could help increase demand for US corn exports.

China has not bought US soybeans for 3 weeks. Prices need new demand or poor SA weather to trade higher. China sold 2.7 mmt of wheat from reserve for feed. Average price $9.57 per bushel.

Wheat rallied on talk of drier Russia and Argentina weather and increase global export demand.

Some estimate US farmers have sold 70-75 pct 2020 soybean crop 50-55 pct corn crop. US corn and soybean futures, basis and spreads trading in tandem based on demand.

On Monday, Managed funds were net buyers of 6,000 SRW Wheat; sold 4,000 Corn; sold 4,000 Soybeans; sold 3,000 Soymeal, and; net sold 2,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 41,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 216,000 Corn; net long 205,000 Soybeans; net long 78,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 87,000 Soyoil.

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