Dollar Lower On Weak Economic Reports

CURRENCY FUTURES

The U.S. dollar index is lower after this morning’s weak economic reports.

The euro currency declined on news that German producer prices increased less than expected in March, posting the smallest year-on-year increase since June 2021. Producer prices of industrial products were up 7.5% from the same month a year ago. Economists anticipated an increase of 9.8% year-on-year.

Markets are now fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate hike from the European Central Bank next month with approximately a 20% chance that the ECB raises rates by 50 basis points.

The Japanese yen is higher despite a report that showed Japan’s export growth slowed in March.

Interest rate differentials suggest lower prices for the U.S. dollar and higher prices for the euro currency.

STOCK INDEX FUTURES

Stock index futures declined due to weaker than expected economic reports.

Jobless claims in the week ended April 15 were 245,000 when 242,000 we anticipated.

The April Philadelphia Federal Reserve manufacturing index was negative 31.3 when negative 19.4 was estimated.

The 9:00 March existing home sales report is predicted to show 4.500 million and the 9:00 March leading indicators are expected to be down 0.4%.

Although prices are lower today, stock index futures have performed very well recently despite a variety of bearish news.

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES

Yesterday’s release of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book survey showed the U.S. economy stalled in recent weeks as hiring and inflation slowed, and access to credit became more limited.

Yesterday, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said inflation is still high and U.S. central bank policymakers “will use monetary policy tools to restore price stability.” He also noted that recent stress in the banking system would likely weigh on economic activity.

Federal Reserve speakers today are Christopher Waller at 11:00, Loretta Mester at 11:20, Lorrie Logan at 2:00, Raphael Bostic at 4:00 and Patrick Harker at 6:45.

Underlying support for futures remains due to the belief that central banks will not be able to keep raising interest rates much longer.

Markets are currently pricing in a 25 basis point rate increase at the Fed’s May 3 policy meeting. However, easier credit conditions from the Federal Reserve are likely later this year.

The technicals and fundamentals remain supportive.

 

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