Written Commentary
ADM Reports Q4 and Full-year 2025 Results
February 3, 2026
CRUDE OIL
The International Energy Agency recommended releasing 400 million barrels of oil from strategic stockpiles to offset shortages and a spike in prices but the crude oil market has taken little comfort from that move, with prices higher early Thursday to their highest level since the spike high on Monday. In addition, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Wednesday that President Trump had authorized the release of 172 million barrels from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve starting next week. The Iran war continues to threaten global supply, with two oil tankers on fire in Iraqi waters on Thursday after what appeared to be Iranian strikes. Iran has warned the world should be ready for oil to hit $200 a barrel. Iran also has targeted fuel tanks at a facility in Bahrain and drones struck oil storage facilities at a port in Oman on Wednesday. IEA said global supply is expected to drop by 8 million barrels per day in March due to the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz and that Middle East Gulf countries including Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have cut total oil production by at least 10 million bpd, equal to almost 10% of world demand.
NATURAL GAS
May Natural Gas pushed through Wednesday’s highs early Thursday to its highest level since the spike high on Monday. The market derives psychological support from the war in Iran, but US LNG export capabilities are limited in the short run. Closer to home, a forecast for winter storms and/or extreme cold over the central US this weekend and into next week could boost heating demand. Conditions are expected to be volatile.
PRODUCTS
Like crude oil, product prices are higher this morning as the market discounts the new of strategic supply releases and focuses instead on the implications of the war in the Mideast, with Iran seemingly intent on inducing damage on supply. The EIA report on Wednesday was bullish against expectations, with gasoline stocks -3.7 million barrels for the week ending March 6 versus expectations for -2.6 million and distillate stocks -1.3 million versus -700,000 expected. Tight global supplies for diesel and the forecast for a winter storm/extreme cold over the central US this weekend also support demand ideas.
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