Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q4 2025
December 22, 2025
CRUDE OIL
March Crude Oil was higher early Thursday, taking back some of the losses from the previous two sessions. Trump Administration representatives on Wednesday were talking about “controlling” Venezuelan oil, which implies a great deal of cooperation by the Venezuelan government as well as stable regime. Any reports of political instability there could inspire buying. Reuters reports that Chevron is in talks with the US government to expand a key license to operate in Venezuela so it can increase crude exports to its own refineries and sell to other buyers.
PRODUCTS
Product prices were higher early Thursday, in line with crude oil, as the market attempts to absorb the situation in Venezuela and its implications for US and global supply. Wednesday’s EIA report was bearish, as gasoline and distillate stocks both increased more than expected. Implied gasoline demand was below a year ago, but implied distillate demand was slightly higher. February RBOB is leading ULSD higher, as the mild winter has had bearish implications for heating demand.
NATURAL GAS
March Natural Gas was lower early Thursday following two day bounce off new lows for the move. The warm start to the winter has reduced the chances for a tight supply situation to develop. However the forecast has a turned cooler. The 6-10-day forecast still has above normal temperatures across most of the US, except for the southeast, far south Texas, and northern Michigan. However, the 8-14-day shows below normal temps covering much of the Midwest, Great Lake, and extending down to the northern reaches of Alabama and Mississippi, with normal temps covering much of the rest of the areas, and this at least offers a chance for some bigger supply withdrawals after next week.
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