Crude At Highest Level Since Nov 8

CRUDE OIL 

January Crude Oil is moderately higher this morning and has traded to its highest level since November 8. Worries over the Russia/Ukraine war may have eased a bit with Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov’s comments  downplaying the nuclear threat after Putin raised the issue yesterday. API crude stocks rose 4.75 million barrels last week, which was bigger than the expected increase of 100,000 barrels. However gasoline stocks fell 2.48 million barrels versus +900,000 expected, and distillate stocks fell 688,000 versus and average expected decline of -20,000. Traders are awaiting the EIA report this morning. Refinery runs are expected to be up 0.1% to 91.5%. We are entering what could be a record travel season, which could help draw down product stocks over the next couple of weeks. China’s fuel oil imports for October totaled 2.06 million metric, about 423,0000 barrels per day. This was highest level in five months and was up 3% from September and 14% above a year prior.

 

Oil shipyard

 

PRODUCT MARKETS

January RBOB extended this week’s rally overnight, and came close to breaching the 100-day moving average at 2.0181. API gasoline stocks fell more than expected last week, and a sharp decline in EIA stocks today could spark a bigger rally. As of last week’s report, US gasoline stocks were down to 206.9 million barrels, the lowest for this time of year in at least six years and only 1.2 million barrels above the low of 205.7 million from 2022. A record 80 million Americans are expected to travel for the Thanksgiving holiday, according to AAA.

NATURAL GAS

January Natural Gas continues to find support from forecasts for cooler weather in late November that could boost heating demand and force utilities to start pulling gas from storage. The 6-10 day forecast shows below normal temperatures covering a little less than half of the lower 48 states, west of a diagonal drawn from Arizona to Minnesota, and the 8-14 day shows the cool trend expanding further east and south. For tomorrow’s EIA gas storage report, a Reuters survey of analysts has a range of expectations from -1 billion cubic feet to +14 bcfd for the week ending November 15. The five-year average change for this week is -25 bcf, with a range of -94 to +31. US gas flows to LNG plants are on track to reach a 10-month high today with a record amount seen at the Plaquemines export plant in Louisiana.

 

  

 

 

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