Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2024
March 19, 2024
Corporate Earnings Support Index Futures
- February 28, 2023
- Alan Bush
- Follow us on Twitter @ADMISI_Ltd
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Stock index futures are higher due to better than expected corporate earnings reports.
January wholesale inventories declined 0.4% when unchanged was anticipated.
The 8:45 central time February Chicago PMI is expected to be 45.0.
The 9:00 December Case-Shiller home price index is predicted to show a 0.5% decline.
The 9:00 February consumer confidence index is estimated to be 108.5 and the 9:00 February Richmond Federal Reserve manufacturing index is anticipated to be -5.0.
Analysts’ commentary on stock index futures has become overwhelmingly bearish.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar is lower, and the euro currency is higher.
Analysts expect the European Central Bank will raise key rates by another 50 basis points at its March 16 policy meeting.
The Swiss economy showed no growth in the fourth quarter of 2022. The 0% growth rate missed forecasts of a 0.1% expansion and marked a slowdown from the 0.2% increase in the third quarter.
Japan’s factory output posted the largest decline in eight months. Factory output fell 4.6% in January from a month earlier. The contraction was much bigger than economists’ forecast for a 2.6% decline.
Australian retail sales rebounded in the first month of 2023. Sales increased 1.9% from a month earlier, which compares to the forecast of a 1.5% gain.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Futures are steady to higher at the front of the curve and lower at the long end of the curve.
Most likely the Federal Open Market Committee will increase its fed funds rate by 25 basis points at its March 22 policy meeting, and there is more talk of another 25 basis point hike at the May meeting.
There has been lots of hawkish “Fed speak” lately, while the severely inverted yield curve is becoming even more inverted but continues to get very little attention.
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