Written Commentary
ADM Reports Third Quarter 2025 Results
November 4, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. Stocks are higher but NASDAQ is lower. 2025 US stocks up 14 pct year to date. USD is higher. Crude is lower. Gold is higher and up 65 pct year to date. Castle and hogs are higher. Chicago budget battle suggest possible first shutdown since 1980’s. Mayor proposing $33 dollar monthly employee head tax to narrow $1.15 billion dollar budget shortfall. US cold but 2nd week warmer
SOYBEANS
SF is near 10.85. Key support 10.80. SMF near key 300 support. USDA announced 264 mt US soybeans to China and 226 mt US soybeans sold to unknown. Nov 12 soybean export were 695 mt. Total commit down 41 pct vs ly and USDA down 13 pct. Conab est Brazil crop 177.1 mmt vs 177.6 but still a record. Argentina est 59 pct crop planted, slightly behind average due to wet soils. Crop rated 59 pct excellent vs 10 ly. Matif rapeseed prices are lower due to talk of higher crops.
CORN
CH is near 4.45. CH supported by US export program. Resistance is from potential higher SA crops and talk of higher global feedgrain and feed wheat supplies. US Nov 12 corn export sales were 2,380 mt. Total commit is up 30 pct vs ly and USDA up 9. USDA announced 185 mt US corn to unknown. Conab est Brazil 2nd corn crop at 110 mmt vs 113 ly. Total crop 139 mmt. Argentina est corn plantings near 59 percent with crop rated 86 pct G/E vs 82 lw and 40 ly. Matif corn lower on higher Euro.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.30. 5.25 key support. KWH is near 5.20. MWH is near 5.76. Nov 12 wheat export sales were 850 mt. US June-Dec exports could exceed 20 mmt for first time since 2020. Canada exports to date are near 9.9 mmt vs 8.8 ly. Argentina est wheat crop a record 27.7 mmt.
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