Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q4 2023
November 28, 2023
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mostly higher. SU is up 4 cents and near 15.50. SN is near 16.98. SX is near 15.28. SMU is near 397.5. BOU is near 74.52. CU is up 2 cents and near 7.31. CN is near 7.76. CZ is near 7.24. WN is near 10.50. WU is up 1 cent and near 10.64. KWN is near 11.29. KWU is down 2 cents and near 11.38. MWN is near 12.03. MWU is up 1 cent and near 12.03.
US stocks are lower. Initial reaction to US Fed hike was positive as Fed had control of inflation. Overnight stocks are lower on fear Fed action will push US into a recession. Gold, silver and sugar are higher. Copper. coffee, cocoa and cotton are lower.
US Midwest will be hot and dry the next 10 days. After that, GFS is cooler while EU continues to be warm and dry into the first few days of July. Spain, France and Germany are dry. Black Sea, Argentina and Brazil are dry. Canada is wet and warm.
US soybean futures are higher despite yesterday’s cancellation of 100 mt US soybean sales from unknown. Weekly US old crop soybean sales are est at 100-500 mt and new crop 100-600 mt. Brazil farmer is selling old crop beans to make room for corn. Dalian soymeal and all vegoils are lower. Soybean is higher. Informa est US 2022 soybean acres at 88.7 vs USDA March est of 90.9 and 87.2 ly.
US corn futures are higher on talk of warmer and drier US Midwest weather. Weekly US old crop corn sales are est at 100-500 mt and new crop 50-400 mt. US cash Midwest corn price is near $8.00 and plains $9.00. Dalian corn was higher. Informa est US 2022 corn acres at 91.0 vs USDA March est of 89.4 and 93.3 ly. US drier Midwest weather should help farmers finish planting. French, Canada and German leaders are in Ukraine looking for a way to open food exports. Russia slowed gas pace to EU on the news. Biden still talk of building silos on Ukraine and Poland border to help increase food exports.
Wheat futures are mixed. Wheat may be finding resistance from crazy trade is US stocks and that overnight stocks were lower on new recession fears. Dry US south plains weather will speed up harvest. Better weather should help US HRS crop but Canada prairie weather is still wet. EU is warm and dry. This weather pushes next week into the Black Sea. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 200-600 mt. Informa est US 2022 wheat acres at 46.4 vs 46.7 ly. Spring wheat acres we rest at 10.5 vs USDA March est of 11.2 and 11.4 ly. Crop 1,750 mil bub vs 1,646 ly.
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