Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q3 2025
October 6, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Boo. US government in 31st day of partial shutdown. Record was 34 days under Trump 1.0. Grains are mixed. US stocks are higher led by Nasdaq. USD is slightly higher. Crude is lower. Gold is slightly lower. W EU wet. Black Sea dry. C/W Argentina rains. Rains in Brazil except NE. US Midwest is dry. Turn clocks back one hour on Nov 2.
SOYBEANS
SF is near 11.07. There were 677 soybean deliveries. LDC stopped 494. Wire services announced China bought another 4 US soybean cargoes. Most doubt China will buy 12 mmt by the end of the year. But there were rumors China may have washed out some Brazil soybean cargoes for US. Dalian soybean and soymeal were higher. Soyoil and palmoil were lower. SMZ seeing more export demand to EU. BOZ is back below 50 cents and waiting for any new news on domestic demand. Brazil and Argentina weather remains favorable for crops. US soybean export commit is est near 16.4 mmt or down 38 pct vs last year. Soybean futures up on how much China buys US vs fact Brazil is cheaper and pace of buying.
CORN
CZ is near 4.29. CZ support is 4.27. Dalian corn futures are near contract low weekly closes. Some est Argentina corn crop could be a record 60 mmt vs USDA est of 53 and with 34 pct pf crop planted. Brazil and Argentina weather remains favorable for crops. Corn futures found new selling with corn not included in US/China trade deal. There is some optimism that China could buy some US sorghum. US and Brazil farmers increase cash sales. Increase logistic challenges is slowing Ukraine grain movement to ports.US corn export commit is est near 33.5 mmt or up 30 pct vs last year.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.21. KWZ is near 5.10. MWZ is near 5.52. Wheat futures continue to follow corn and is not included in US/China trade deal. Argentina and Australia will soon harvest record crops. US south plains dry. US wheat export commit is est near 16.5 mmt and up 19 pct vs ly.
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