Conab Boosts 2025 Brazil Coffee Crop Outlook

COFFEE

Conab increased its estimate for Brazil’s 2025 coffee crop to 56.5 million bags, up from 55.2 million estimated in September and up 4.3% from the previous year. Conab credited better average national yields supported the revision. The arabica coffee crop was pegged at 35.76 million bags, up from 35.15 million in the previous forecast, and robusta output was seen at 20.77 million bags, up from 20.05 million and a new record high. World Weather Inc. says Brazil rainfall has been sufficient to support coffee development this season, but there has been a tendency for some of the rain to be light at times. They expect the situation to improve in the next week to ten days, with greater daily rain intensity and coverage expected. Vietnam has been plagued by too much rains, but drier conditions this week have been good for crop maturation and harvesting. There is a tropical disturbance near the central Philippines that could move toward southern Vietnam this weekend into early next week. Early indications suggest the storm will stay to the south of the Central Highlands, but the disturbance will need to be closely monitored.  Brazil exported 212,150 metric tons of green coffee in November, down from 285,288 for the same period last year. Dealers told Reuters that US roasters have been especially interested in stocking up on Brazilian coffee now that the tariffs have been lifted, and this could be providing underlying support. ICE certified arabica stocks increased 5,020 bags on Thursday to 418,494, their highest since November 5.

COCOA

More consolidation as the market seeks fundamentals to justify further upside action. West Africa is entering its dry season, but only gradually. The severity of the dry season will have a bearing on the latter half of the main crop. World Weather Inc. says recent rainfall has stay near the coast and avoided major production areas, and they added that drying in interior cop areas will be good for crop maturation and harvest. Growers in Ivory Coast were optimistic about prospects for later in the season, provided Harmattan winds are not too severe. ICE stocks fell 3,213 bags on Thursday to 1.683 million, the lowest since March 14.

SUGAR

March Sugar is inside the consolidation of the past week. The rally off the November low was interrupted when the it failed to push through the 50-day moving average last week, and that line, currently around 15.18, could be a key resistance level in the next couple of sessions. Global supply has recovered, but nearby prices have already fallen 50% from their 2023 highs. The recent Commitments of Traders Report showed managed money traders were net short 153,192 contracts as of October 24, their second-largest net short since November 2019, which leaves the market vulnerable to aggressive short covering if resistance levels are taken out. This afternoon’s update will cover the week ending October 31. Recent UNICA reports have indicated that Brazilian cane crushers have stepped up their ethanol production, which could limit their sugar output and help reduce burdensome global supply and add support to ideas that the market put in a major low last month. Sugar’s share of the crush fell to 38.2% in the first half November after falling below 50% in October for the first time since April. Earlier this week India’s production was reported to be running was 43% higher than year-ago levels during October and November, the first two months of the marketing year. However, with world sugar prices are below their domestic price, which makes it difficult for Indian exporters to secure sales.

COTTON

March Cotton was higher early Friday, recovering some of its losses on Thursday that came in the wake of a disappointing export sales report. The president of Brazil’s association of cotton exporters told Reuters that they expect Brazilian cotton exports to reach 3.2 million metric tons in 2025/26 up 10% from the previous year. He added that India has represented about 16% of Brazil’s exports so far this season. Brazilian cotton exports through October were down 7% year-on-year to about 677,000 tons due to a delayed harvest, but they have been increasing. Official data released on Thursday by Brazil’s government showed cotton exports rising 34.4% in November from a year earlier to about 402,000 tons. Yesterday’s USDA Export Sales report showed US cotton sales for the week ending October 30 at 81,530 bales for the 2025/26 (current) marketing year and 7,920 for 2026/27 for a total of 89,450. This was down from 167,742 the previous week, the lowest since September 18 and the second lowest for the marketing year. Cumulative sales for 2025/26 have reached 4.961 million bales, down from 5.663 million at this time last year and still the slowest pace in 11 years. Sales have reached 44% of the USDA forecast versus a five-year average of 61% for this point in the marketing year. The largest buyer that week was Mexico at 19,204 bales, followed by Vietnam at 17,261 and Turkey at 10,187. The next update will be Monday December 8, and it will cover the week ending November 6. World Weather Inc. says Australia’s cotton crop would benefit from rain in western, dryland, production areas where recent hot and dry conditions may have slowed some development. Eastern crop areas are suspected of being in mostly good shape. ABARE recently reported a 22% decline in area planted to cotton this year.

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