Written Commentary
ADM Appoints Monish Patolawala as EVP and CFO
July 10, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SK is up 13 cents and near 13.84. SMK is near 430.0. BOK is near 46.21. CK is up 6 cents and near 5.42. WK is up 11 cents and near 6.52. KWK is up 16 cents and near 6.38. Bitter US cold temps has pushed energy prices higher. Some feel cold could increase fuel and feed demand and slow domestic logistics. US stocks are higher. Higher earnings, stimulus and vaccine versus the virus. Higher US debt weighs on US Dollar.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices were down roughly 4 cents; HRW down 8; HRS down 10; Corn was down 11 cents; Soybeans up 9 cents; Soymeal down $2.00, and; Soyoil up 115 points. Crushing margins were down $0.02 $0.64 (July); Oil share up 1% at 34%.
Chinese Ag futures on holiday from Feb. 11 to 17 (Thursday to Wednesday) for the celebration of Chinese Spring Festival. Resumes on Feb. 18 (Thursday). Malaysian palm oil prices were up 9 ringgit at 3,533 (basis May) up 162, (basis April), on Monday at 3,720 on higher exports, higher soyoil prices.
Matif rapeseed futures made new highs. Matif corn futures also made new highs, Matif wheat is near 2 week highs. EU wheat exports need to slow. Russia export price ill defined as taxes are imposed. USDA Outlook Forum Friday. Trade slowly shifting focus from South America weather to north hemisphere.
Brazil weather will be mixed over the next ten days to two weeks. Southern parts of the nation will experience good drying conditions favoring soybean maturation and harvesting as well as Safrinha crop planting. Argentina weather is becoming more tenuous with restricted rainfall over the next ten days to two weeks.
On Friday, Managed funds were net buyers of 3,000 SRW Wheat;41,000 Soybeans and 4,000 lots of Soyoill, and; net sold 5,000 corn and 2,000 Soymeal. We estimate Managed Money net long 8,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 321,000 Corn; net long 157,000 Soybeans; net long 61,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 107,000 Soyoil.
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