Written Commentary
ADM Reports Third Quarter 2025 Results
November 4, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. USDA report Dec 9. Stocks are mixed. USD is lower. Crude is lower. Gold and silver and copper are lower. Central Bank is expected to lower rates. Trade will be watching the Supreme Court decision on Trump tariffs. China 11 month trade surplus hit a record 1 trillion dollars. Chins politburo announce new cross cycle policy to increase domestic use.
SOYBEANS
SF is near 10.99. SF is back below 11.00. Talk that China may delay buying rest of 12 mmt US soybeans that was talked about until 2026 is negative. Some est China has bought 3.5 mmt US soybean to date. Brazil weather remains favorable. Parts of Argentina is dry. Demise of La Nina could increase Argentina rains. Trade estimates US 25/26 soybean carryout at 302 mil bu vs USDA 290. Range is 250-385. Some est carryout closer to 470 due to lower exports.
CORN
CH is near 4.45. CH resistance 4.50. Support 4.40. Dalian corn futures continue to trade higher due to debate on size of local crop. Brazil weather is favorable. Ukraine harvest running behind normal. Higher Black Sea freight due to war risk as peace talks break down weighs on Ukraine export price. Trade estimates US 25/26 corn carryout at 2,124 mil bu vs USDA 2,154. Range is 1,970-2,229. Some est carryout closer to 2,320 due to lower domestic use. US to announce soon 12 billion dollar US farm aid to offset lower prices and tariffs. Key is will aid slow or increase farmer cash sales.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.38. KWH is near 5.32. MWH is near 5.74. Higher Black Sea freight due to war risk as peace talks break raises cost of Black Sea wheat export price. Trade estimates US 25/26 wheat carryout at 890 mil bu vs USDA 901. Range is 846-901. Some est carryout closer to 904. Trade estimates World 25/26 wheat carryout at 272.7 mmt vs USDA 271.4 and 261.4 ly. Range is 271-275.
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