China Crude Imports Jump in November

CRUDE OIL 

January Crude Oil is trading inside yesterday’s range today, as some of the excitement from yesterday has faded. China’s crude oil imports did increase in November to 48.52 million tons, up 14.3% from a year earlier and the first time they were above year-ago levels in seven months. It was also the highest since August 2023. Year to date imports are still down 1.9% from year ago. Saudi Arabia and Iran cut prices to Asia, which attracted buyers. Yesterday the market found support from talk of China loosening its monetary policy stance and possibly concerns that the overthrow in Syria would add to supply uncertainty. So far, the situation in Syria has been relatively calm. For the US inventory reports, a Reuters survey of analysts calls for crude oil stocks to be down 1.3 million barrels for the week ending December 6, with gasoline stocks down 200,000 and distillate stocks up 900,000. Refinery runs are expected to be down 0.9% to 92.4%.

 

Oil Rigs

 

NATURAL GAS

January Natural Gas rejected the gap higher open and subsequent sharp rally yesterday, and it is lower this again morning. Cold weather is returning to the US for a couple of days, conditions are expected to moderate over the weekend. The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts still show warmer than normal temperatures dominating the lower 48, with near normal temps emerging along the eastern seaboard showing up in the 8-14 day. This does not point to strong heating demand, which should make it difficult for the US to draw down its excess supply. Strong demand will have to come from LNG exports. Dutch and British wholesale gas prices were near unchanged overnight with temperatures expected to turn warmer and strong imports of LNG. Gas flows from Russia to Europe remained stable.

PRODUCT MARKETS

Crude oil will likely lead RBOB, but keep in mind that US gasoline stocks are near six year lows.

 

 

 

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