Written Commentary
ADM Reports Q4 and Full-year 2025 Results
February 3, 2026
CRUDE OIL
April Crude Oil prices were hold firm early Tuesday, inside Monday’s range, as the market continues to draw support on the possibility of US military action in Iran. The latest indicator of the potential that a strike was imminent being the US State Department pulling non-essential government personnel and their families from the embassy in Beirut. The next round of talks between Iran and the US is scheduled for Thursday in Geneva. Tehran has offered to send half of its most highly enriched uranium abroad, diluting the rest and taking part in creating a regional enrichment consortium. It has also offered the chance for US companies to participate as contractors in Iran’s oil and gas industries.
PRODUCTS
Like crude oil, April RBOB stayed inside Monday’s range early Tuesday, but May ULSD managed to push through its high from Monday. Military action tends to increase diesel demand more than gasoline. US diesel exports to the EU hit an all-time high of 336,000 barrels per day in January, according to Kpler data after in the wake of tightening restriction on Russian supply.
NATURAL GAS
April Natural Gas has quickly given back its gains off the weekend blizzard in the Northeast, as the trend towards milder temperatures is expected to resume. The 6-10-day forecast has a normal/below normal pattern across the northern Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast, but above normal elsewhere temperatures dominate the rest of the lower 48. The forecast is perhaps a bit cooler than it was yesterday. The 8-14-day has above normal everywhere but New England and upstate New York. For the EIA gas storage report this week, the early Reuters poll has a range of expectations calling for a net draw of 34 to 90 billion cubic feet last week.
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