Written Commentary
ADM Reports Q4 and Full-year 2025 Results
February 3, 2026
CRUDE OIL
April Crude Oil reached a new high for the week early Friday but gave back some of those gains as the session progressed. The market has been bit higher this week on expectations that a US attack on Iran was likely. President Trump said on Thursday that “really bad things” would happen if Iran does not come to an agreement to curtail its nuclear program, but he also mentioned a deadline of 10 to 15 days, which may have made the attacks appear less imminent than they had prior to his comments. A primary concerns to oil traders is that Iran may respond to US attacks by closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil supply passes.
PRODUCTS
The size of the declines in EIA gasoline and distillate stocks last week were impressive given the larger than expected increase in refinery runs. This also implied strong demand for both. Gasoline stock remain at six-year seasonal highs but they saw their biggest one-week decline since October.
NATURAL GAS
Some colder, more seasonal weather is expected to move in over the weekend but gradually give way to a warmer trend next week. The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts show above and much above normal temperatures across most of the lower 48 states, which would limit heating demand as we move to the tail end of the season. Keep an eye on forecasts for the southern US, which appears to be the center point of the warmer than normal trend, because if temps get very warm, it could spark talk of increased cooling demand. US production continues to recover from the January low.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 02547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2026 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
Latest News & Market Commentary
ADM & Industry News
ADM Named to FORTUNE’s Most Admired Company List
January 23, 2026
The Ghost in the Machine Q4 2025
December 22, 2025
