Written Commentary
ADM Reports Q2 2025 Results
August 5, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are quietly mixed again this am. US stocks are mixed. USD is higher. Crude is higher. US Midwest forecast is mostly dry with above normal temps. Brazil and Argentina are dry. NATO shot down Russia drones over Poland. Israel bombed Qatar. Trump urging EU to increase tariffs on India and China.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.27. Next key input is USDA Sep 12 report. Trade est US 24/25 soybean carryout at 328 mil bu vs USDA 330. Trade est US 25/26 soybean carryout at 288 mil bu vs USDA 290. Trade est US crop at 4,271 mil bu vs USDA August 4,292. US Midwest remains dry with warmer temps. Soyoil futures dropped on word Senate was moving to block transfer of SRE’s from small refineries to large refineries. US domestic and SOAM soymeal premiums firmed on the news. Lower Argentina crush and increase Argentina currency volatility also supported soymeal prices. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and plamoil prices were lower. End of August Malaysian palmoil productions and stocks were higher while exports were lower.
CORN
CZ is near 4.18 on open US harvest weather. Farmers are expected to speed harvest before corn dries down like last year. Next key input is USDA Sep 12 report. Trade est US 24/25 corn carryout at 1,311 mil bu vs USDA 1,305. Trade est US 25/26 corn carryout at 2,011 mil bu vs USDA 2,117. Trade est US crop at 16,516 mil bu vs USDA August 16,742. Dalian corn futures were lower. Black Sea prices were lower. Global World supply is higher than last year.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.21. WZ range 5.00-5.50. KWZ is near 5.11. MWZ is near 5.72. Wheat futures took a hit on Tuesday due to lower competitive exporter prices which could slow US sales. Next key input is 2026 south hemisphere crops and Russia exports and export price. Trade est US 25/26 wheat carryout at 865 mil bu vs USDA August 869. Trade est World 25/26 wheat end stocks at 261.1 mmt vs 260.1 in August.
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