Ags Mixed to Higher Start

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Grains are mixed to higher. SN is up 4 cents and near 13.57. SMN is near 398.7. BON is near 51.00. CN is up 1 cent and near 6.09. WN is up 2 cents and near 6.29. KWN is unch and near 8.19. MWN is unch and near 8.33. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher but off recent high near $75.

Soybean futures are higher. Could be some US Midwest weather premium being added to nearby prices. Next SN resistance is near 13.64 then 13.85. It is too early to begin dropping US yield but many key areas of US soybean crop need a good rain. Prices were also supported by 165 mt sales of US soybean to Spain. Lower demand for World protein and increase competition from alternative protein offers resistance to SMN near 400. Trade estimates US 2022/23 soybean carryout at 223 and 2023/24 at 345.

CN is higher. US 10 day Midwest weather forecast could see less than normal rains. Could be some US Midwest weather premium being added to nearby prices. Next CN resistance is near 6.14 then 6.20. It is too early to begin dropping US yield but many key areas of US corn crop need a good rain. Record Brazil corn crop will soon be offered to buyers. Despite lower crop and current dry weather, Argentina has as much corn to sell for export today as ly. Trade estimates US 2022/23 corn carryout at 1,449 and 2023/24 at 2,254. Great farmer meeting in TN yesterday. Farmers asking about increase futures volatility challenging marketing and wondering can Brazil continue to increase corn and soybean production.

Wheat futures are mixed. Yesterday’s knee jerk reaction to Russia attacking key Ukraine dam fizzled with talk damage to power plant could be minimal. WN 6.48 high is now key resistance. KWN 8.47. MWN is near 8.36. Funds remain record short Chicago futures. NE EU, Russia spring wheat and Ukraine are dry. US ND and Canada are dry. Trade estimates US 2022/23 wheat carryout at 606 and 2023/24 at 569. Trade also estimates US 2023 wheat crop at 1,672 up 13. GASC bought only 55 mt of Russia what but prices was near $229. There were some rumors of increase China need for wheat imports due to rains lowering quality of 30 mmt of the 137 mmt crop.

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