Written Commentary
ADM Appoints Monish Patolawala as EVP and CFO
July 10, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grain are lower. SU is down 15 cents and near 14.38. SMU is near 438.5. BOU is near 66.00. CU is down 7 cents and near 5.26. WU is down 11 cents and near 7.01. KWU is down 5 cents and near 8.61. MWU is down 6 cents and near8.98. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower.
Soybeans are lower on talk of better US Midwest weather next week. For now, hot and dry weather this week should drop weekly crop ratings 2-3 pct. Nearby soybean futures are supported by positive crush margins and talk of higher demand for US soymeal. April soyoil use for biofuel was a record 927 mil lbs or up 10 pct vs ly. New crop soybean futures are on the defensive due to fact that new crop soybean sales are down 60 pct vs ly despite recent China buying. EU RSO prices continue to drop due to harvest pressure and fact crushers have needed coverage. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil prices are lower. US soybean export commit is near 1,938 mil bu vs 2,187 ly. USDA goal is 1,980 vs 2,152 ly.
Corn futures are lower on talk of better US Midwest weather next week. Funds are adding to net short futures position. For now, hot and dry weather this week should drop weekly crop ratings 2-3 pct. 59 pct of US corn acres are in drought vs 55 last week. Dalian corn prices are higher. US corn export commit is near 1,577 mil bu vs 2,385 ly. USDA goal is 1,650 vs 2,472 ly. Weekly US ethanol production was higher and margins remain positive. US domestic cash basis levels remain firm on slower farmer selling. Still, US corn export prices are near $247 vs Brazil $218. CU-CZ spread making new lows due to slow export shipments. Trade also trading headlines that Ukraine exports will flow east. Still no word on how and who will pay for additional transportation cost.
Wheat futures are lower. Trade is trading headlines that Ukraine exports will flow east. Still no word on how and who will pay for additional transportation cost. Funds are adding to net short futures position. US wheat export commit is near 199 mil bu vs 294 ly. USDA goal is 725 vs 759 ly. World trade is 7,743 mil bu. Canada crop could be closer to 30 mmt vs USDA 35. Russia harvest near 20 pct. Recent attacks have damaged 26 Ukraine port facilities and 5 civilian vessels. India reduced wheat crop to 108 mmt vs USDA 113. There were no news on lowering import tax or importing wheat. Trade trying to deal with Black Sea supply and export unknown, 6 month lows in prices and wheat option volatility above normal levels. World wheat supply is dropping but so is demand.
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