Written Commentary
ADM Appoints Monish Patolawala as EVP and CFO
July 10, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SN is up 6 cents and near 13.96. SMN is near 437.8. BON is near 49.42. CN is up 2 cents and near 5.89. WN is up 13 cents and near 6.48. KWN is up 20 cents and near 8.97. MWN is up 15 cents and near 8.61. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower, Crude is higher but still near $70.
Soybeans are higher. Key will be US summer weather and if US final yield will be near USDA May guess. Brazil summer soybean export prices are sharply higher than nearby. USDA did raise Brazil 2023 crop 1 mmt to 155 but kept Argentina at 27. Last weeks US soymeal export sales were higher than expected and could suggest some World demand could be switching to US. Argentina economy is collapsing. US soybean crush margins remain positive and crushers are looking to buy beans.
July corn continues to gain on Dec. US planting conditions are favorable. Key will be US summer weather and if US final yield will be near USDA May guess. Managed funds are net short 109,000 corn contracts versus long 340,000 last year. Some feel 5.80 CN may be too low for how tight the US cash market is and improving ethanol margins. Lower US 2023 HRW crop could increase corn feed use. Corn will also follow energy prices, global economic pace and domestic demand will be key for prices. C/S Brazil is dry.
Wheat futures are higher led by KC. KS missed weekend rains. Canada, US SW, Parts of Russia and Australia are dry. US north plains are too wet. WN is back testing key resistance near 6.50. KWN has rallied 164 cents from the May 2 low and is testing 9.00. KWN-WN making new high at +240. MWN has rallied 96 cents from the May 2 low. There is still no word on the Ukraine export corridor extension. Turkey Presidential election will be in a runoff. N Africa could see some needed rains. Argentina could finally see a weather change and finally get some rain.
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