Written Commentary
ADM Appoints Monish Patolawala as EVP and CFO
July 10, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is up 5 cents and near 13.77. SMZ is near 411.3. BOZ is near 62.93. CZ is down 1 cent and near 4.87. WZ is up 1 cent and near 6.33. KWZ is up 5 cents and near 7.67. MWZ is up 6 cents and near 8.05. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Trade awaiting US Fed Chairman speech today. China is offering tax breaks for home buyers. CBOT grains normal hours Friday Sep 1, closed Sunday Sep 3 and day session Sep 4.
Soybean futures are higher. SX is near 4 week high. Board crush margin is near 1 year high. Pro Farmer tour found MN soybean pod count at 984 vs 1,100 ly and 1,071 3 year average. IA soybean pod count is 1,190 vs 1,174 ly and 1,179 3 year average. Pod counts on the Pro Farmer crop tour are favorable, but will need rain to achieve yield potential. SX is now above all moving averages and a gap near 13.75. Dalian soymeal prices, soybean, palmoil and soyoil were higher. US soybean export commit is near 1,964 mil bu vs 2,188 ly. New crop is only 434.
Corn futures are slightly lower. Pro Farmer tour found MN corn yield at 181.3 vs 190.4 ly and 187.6 3 year average. IA corn yield is 182.8 vs, 183.8 ly and 184.7 3 year average. Corn futures are trying to hold 4.80 support. Sep-Dec spread hit new wide at 16 cents. Oats rallied on US and Canada supply worries. OZ is 4 cents over CZ. Bears feel prices will continue to be under pressure as US harvest will start mid September, US corn export commit is 1,595 vs 2,399 ly. New crop is only 289. Many are moving toward increasing Costanaza export capacity to increase Ukraine exports.
Wheat futures are higher. There is no clear picture of Russian market and there was no fresh news on the Ukraine insurance scheme, EU quality is an issue, and the S Hemisphere shows little sign of any needed rain. There is little specific fresh news, and the trade now awaits next week’s Stats Canada crop update. Australia, Argentina and Black Sea are dry. EU is wet. US wheat export commit is 18 pct below last year.
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