Written Commentary
ADM Appoints Monish Patolawala as EVP and CFO
July 10, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SX is down 4 cents and near 14.01. SMZ is near 417.7. BOZ is near 63.34. CZ is down 1 cent and near 4.95. WZ is down 1 cent and near 6.16. KWZ is down 3 cents and near 7.46. MWZ is unch and near 7.91. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. China is cutting rates on existing mortgage loans.
Soybean futures are lower. US soybean 2 week forecast is dry. Some rains are forecast in N and E Argentina. USDA rated soybean crop down 1 pct at 58 G/E. this similar to last year when US yield was 49.5. 44 pct of US soybean acres are below trend yield, 34 pct above. Dalian soybean prices were higher, soymeal higher, plamoil and soyoil lower. US soybean exports are near 51.1 mmt, down 8 pct from ly. USDA announced 296 mt new soybean sales to unknown. US barge prices are higher due to low Miss river water levels. Brazil exports are at maximum capacity. Argentina crush is dropping due to low soybean supplies.
Corn futures are marginally lower. USDA dropped US crop rating 2 pct to 56 pct G/E. 47 pct of US corn acres are below trend yield, 28 pct above. US corn exports are near 36.8 mmt or down 32 pct from last year. USDA announced 123 mt to Mexico. Brazil 2nd corn harvest is near 83 pct. 7 pct of the first 2024 crop is planted. US corn cif prices are up due to low Miss river water levels and reduces US competitiveness vs Brazil. There is still uncertainty over pace of Ukraine exports. USDA is forecasting higher US 2023/24 corn demand vs this year.
Wheat futures are lower. Australia, Argentina, Canada and Black Sea crops could decline. EU is wet. There is no geopolitical and weather premium in US futures. Managed funds are net short 75,000 contracts vs 83,000 soybean long. US exports are near 4 mmt or down 21 pct vs last year. US spring harvest is 54 pct with crop rated 37 pct G/E vs 68 ly.
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