Written Commentary
ADM Exceeds 5M Regenerative Agriculture Acreage Gal
September 9, 2025
CORN
Prices were $.06-$.07 lower today giving back a large part of Friday’s gains. Spreads also weakened. Export inspections at 59.5 mil. bu., were at the high end of expectations and just above the 57 mil. needed per week to reach the revised USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 85 mil. bu. are up 106% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 5%. Noted buyers were Mexico – 17 mil. and Japan – 15 mil. The USDA also announced the sale of 149k mt (6 mil. bu.) of corn to an unknown buyer. AgRural estimates Brazil’s 1st crop corn is 17% planted. Safras & Mercado forecast their 1st crop production at 25.48 mmt, up 3% from YA. The CFTC reports money managers were net sellers of 8,442 contracts extending their short position back to 100k contracts as of last Tues. the 9th. Friday’s USDA report showed stocks/use among major exporting countries for the 24/25 MY rose to 7.7%, up from 7.4% in August. New crop stocks/use however inched down to 9.7% from 9.8% the month prior.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed with beans down $.03-$.04 in 2 sided trade, meal was off $2-$3 while oil was up 10 points. Nov-25 beans rejected trade above $10.50 for the first time in 2 weeks. Next major resistance is at the Aug-25 high of $10.62 ¾. Support is at the 100 day MA at $10.30 ½. Oct-25 oil rejected trade over $.52 lb. while closing near its 100 day MA. Inside trade for Oct-25 meal. US and Chinese trade delegates met again in Madrid hopefully laying the groundwork for a meeting between Pres. Trump and Chinese leader Xi this fall. This AM Pres. Trump took to social media stating he planned on speaking with Xi on Friday of this week. NOPA crush in Aug-25 at just under 190 mil. bu. was well above expectations of 182.9 mil. and above the range of estimates. Although crush was off 3% from the 195.7 mil. in July it was up a whopping 20% from Aug-24. Despite crush coming in above expectations, oil stocks slipped 9.7% from July to 1.245 bil. lbs. and below expectations of 1.298 bil. Implied census crush for August at 198 mil. bu. would bring final crush for the 2024/25 MY to 2.445 bil., 15 mil. bu. above the current USDA estimate. Export inspections at 29.5 mil. bu. were above expectations however below the 32 mil. needed per week to reach the revised USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 39 mil. bu. are up 43% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 10%. Biggest takers were Italy, Bangladesh and Mexico all taking 3-5 mil. bu. Stocks/use among major exporting countries for the 24/25 MY slipped to 19.9% from 20.2%. New crop stocks/use held steady at 19.4%. The USDA Ave. Farm price at $10.00 bu. for the 25/26 MY seems a bit low with US stocks/use ratio below 7%. Soybean plantings in Brazil are just getting underway.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from fractionally lower in KC to $.02 higher in CGO. Spreads were mostly weaker. Dec-25 KC failed to hold trade into new highs for the month. Same with Dec-25 CGO after trading to a 2 week high. Export inspections at 27 mil. bu. were also above expectations and above the 16 mil. bu. needed weekly to reach the revised USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 289 mil. bu. are up 12% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 9%. MM’s were net sellers of 10,451 contracts of CGO wheat extending their short position back to just over 92k contracts. They were net buyers of 1,656 contracts of KC wheat.
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