Ag Market View for Sept 6.22
Soybeans ended lower. Talk of higher US 2022 soybean crop and 2023 Brazil crop plus concern about lower demand for US soybean exports offered resistance. Weekly US soybean exports were near 18 mil bu vs 3 last year. We are starting a new marketing year. USDA est US 2022/23 soybean exports near 2,155 mil bu vs 2,160 last year. Some fear global recession and strict China lockdown rules could drop US final soybean exports closer to 2,000. That could add 155 mil bu to USDA 2022/23 carryout of 245. Informa est US 2022 soybean crop near 4,471 mil bu or 60 mil bu less than USDA August est of 4,531. Informa also increased Brazil 2022 soybean crop 1.5 mmt to 151.0 vs USDA 149.0 and 126.0 ly. Trade est US soybean crop 56 pct G/E vs 57 last week.
Corn futures are higher on concern about lower US and EU supply. Weekly US corn exports were near 20 mil bu vs 13 last year. We are starting a new marketing year. USDA est US 2022/23 corn exports near 2,375 mil bu vs 2,450 last year. Some fear global recession, strict China lockdown rules, higher 2023 South America supplies and lower Ukraine corn export prices could drop US final corn exports closer to 2,000. That could add 375 mil bu to USDA 2022/23 carryout of 1,388. Informa est US 2022 corn crop near 14,040 mil bu or 319 mil bu less than USDA August est of 14,359. Informa est IL corn yield near 202 vs 202 ly, IN 186 vs 195, OH 182 vs 193, IA 200 vs 205, MN 191 vs 178 and NE 172 vs 194. Informa also lowered EU 2022/23 corn crop 2.0 mmt to 151.0 vs USDA 149.0 and 126.0 ly. Trade est US corn crop rating near 53 pct G/E vs 54 last week.US west Midwest will remain dry. US SE and Delta could remain wet. Russia is dry but could see rain next week. Argentina is dry as corn planting nears. N/C Brazil is dry. S Brazil weather is normal before corn planting.
Wheat futures ended mixed. Chicago and KC wheat ended higher on talk of weather concerns in US winter wheat, Russia and EU. Mpls was lower on better US and Canada harvest spring wheat yields. Weekly US wheat exports were near 17 mil bu vs 15 last year. Season to date exports are 205 mil bu vs 243 ly. USDA goal is 825 mil bu vs 800 ly. Some estimate US 2022/23 wheat carryout near 625 mil bu vs USDA 610 vs USDA 660 ly. Informa raised Russia wheat crop 5 mmt to 95.0 vs USDA 88.0 and 75.1 last year. They raised Australia wheat crop 2 mmt to 35.0 vs USDA 33.0 and 36.3 ly. Trade est US spring wheat harvest near 67 vs 50 last week. Trade est US winter wheat planting at 4 pct. Some feel US soils are dry going into 2023 planting season.
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