Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q3 2025
October 6, 2025
CORN
Prices were steady to $.01 higher in choppy 2 sided trade. Spreads firmed a bit. Dec-25 closed higher for a 5th consecutive session. Next resistance is the October high at $4.31 ¼. Export inspections at 52 mil. bu. were in line with expectations however below the 57 mil. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. Last week’s inspections were revised up by 3 mil. bu. bring YTD inspections to 367 mil. up 61% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 5%. Noted buyers were Mexico with 17 mil. while Japan and Spain both bought 8 mil. Over the weekend the Trump Admin. ended US aid to Colombia and also threatened a massive increase in tariffs while calling out their Pres. as an illegal drug leader doing little to stop the flow of drugs into the US. Colombia is the 3rd largest buyer of US corn, expected to import nearly 300 mil. bu. in 2025/26 MY. AgRural is reporting Brazil’s first corn crop planting have reached 51% vs. 48% YA.
SOYBEANS
Prices were higher across the complex with beans up $.11-$.13, meal was $4-$5 higher while oil was up 20-25 points. Bean spreads were mixed while product spreads weakened. Nov-25 beans closed at its highest level in a month and above both its 50 and 100 day MA’s. Next resistance is the September high at $10.53. Dec-25 meal also surged to a 1 month high closing above its 50 day MA. Next resistance is at the 100 MA at $287.70. Dec-25 oil held below its 50 day MA resistance at 51.58. Spot board crush margins slipped $.02 to $1.60 bu. with bean oil PV falling to 47.4%. Pres. Trump stated he thinks US/China can still work out a trade deal that is beneficial to both sides while encouraging China to return to buying the same volume of US soybeans. Trump still plans on meeting with Chinese leader Xi in less than 2 weeks in S. Korea while Treasury Sec. Bessent is set to meet with Chinese Vice Premier in Malaysia this week. Bean inspections at 54 mil. bu. were above expectations and a MY high. They were also well above the 33 mil. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 204 mil. bu. are down 31% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 10%. Numerous countries took between 5-8 mil. bu. US demand to non-Chinese buyers remains strong. AgRural is reporting Brazil’s soybean crop is 24% planted vs. 18% YA. China imported 12.9 mmt of soybeans in Sept., the 2nd highest total ever, however none came from the US. This is the first time Chinese imports from the US fell to zero since Nov-18 during the 1st US/China trade war in Trumps 1st term. The market remains hopeful the US can pick up at least some of the 300-350 mil. bu. of expected Chinese imports for the Dec/Jan timeframe ahead of Brazil’s soybean harvest early next year.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.02 lower to $.01 higher, unable to hold higher trade overnight. Dec-25 MIAX matched its contract low of $5.48 for a 3rd consecutive session. Export inspections at 18 mil. bu. were in line with expectations and above the 15 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 411 mil. bu. up 20% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 9%. An Australian grain analyst raised their wheat production .5 mmt to 35.7 mmt vs. the USDA forecast of 34.5 mmt. IKAR is reporting the export price for Russian wheat ended last week at $231 mt, up $2 from the previous week. SovEcon raised their export forecast for Oct. ever so slightly to 5.1 mmt. Algeria is seeking 50k mt of soft milling wheat in a tender that expires Wed. Oct. 22nd. Ukraine’s 25/26 wheat shipments as of Oct. 20th at 5.68 mmt are down 22.6% from YA. US winter wheat plantings are expected to have reached 75%, up from LW’s est. of 66%.
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