Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q3 2025
October 6, 2025
CORN
Prices were $.01 – $.02 higher closing near session highs. Spreads also firmed. For now at least, Dec-25 has rejected trade into new lows for the month. Next resistance is the 50 day MA at $4.15 ¼. A Reuters poll suggests corn harvest has reached 44% as of this past Sunday, down slightly from the 47% pace from YA. Export inspections at 44 mil. bu. were a MY low and below expectations. They were also below the 57 mil. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. Last week’s inspections however were revised up by 4 mil. bu. bring YTD inspections to 313 mil. up 65% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 5%. The only noted buyers were Mexico – 12 mil. and Colombia – 8 mil. Conab is forecasting Brazil’s 2025/26 corn production at 138.6 mmt, slightly above their preliminary forecast of 138.3 however below expectations. They forecast plantings will reach 22.69 mil. HA, up 3.8% YOY with export reaching 46.5 mmt. Conab’s forecast is well above the USDA production est. of 131 mmt, and exports at 43 mmt. EU 25/26 imports as of Oct. 12th at 4.33 mmt are down 27.4% YOY.
SOYBEANS
Prices held at slightly lower levels into the close with beans steady to $.01 lower, meal was steady to $1 lower while oil was steady to down 10 points. Bean and oil spreads weakened while meal spreads firmed. Nov-25 beans held support above $10 however just feels like a matter of time before we dip below it. Next support is the Oct-25 low of $9.93 ¾. Support for Dec-25 meal is at $270.10. Dec-25 oil finished near session highs as it continues to find good support just below $.50 lb. Trade tensions between US/China flared up as both sides have starting imposing steep fees on each other’s vessels at their respective ports. In addition China has placed sanctions on several US subsidiaries of S. Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean. Pres. Trump today described US relations with China as “fair” but urged caution in dealing with them. Mostly dry conditions across the SE 2/3rds of the US Midwest thru Friday with scattered showers for the NW third. Rains will eventually slide across the S. Midwest and ECB by this weekend, slowing harvest into the early part of next week. Soybean harvest was estimated at 58%, well below the 67% pace from YA, which was amongst the fastest pace ever. Export inspections at 36.5 mil. bu. were above expectations and a MY high. They were also above the 33 mil. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 149 mil. bu. are down 26% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 10%. Several countries took between 2-5 mil. bu. NOPA crush for September expected at 11 AM tomorrow. Spot board crush margins improved $.01 ½ to $1.53 ½ while remaining near its long term Ave. Conab is forecasting Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean production will reach a record 177.6 mmt, slightly below their preliminary forecast and below expectations. They forecast plantings will reach 49.07 mil. HA, up 3.6% YOY with export reaching 112.1 mmt. This compares to the USDA forecasts of 175 mmt of production and exports at 112 mmt. EU soybean imports for 25/26 MY as of Oct. 12th at 3.41 mmt are down 7.3% from YA. Meal imports at 5.09 mmt are steady with YA.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.02-$.07 higher with most contracts closing near session highs. All classes were able to shake off early weakness while both Dec-25 CGO and KC fell to 5 year lows on their respective monthly charts. Dec-25 KC close above yesterday’s high carving out a key reversal day. Dec-25 CGO just missed out on a key reversal. Export inspections at 16 mil. bu. were in line with expectations and above the 15 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 392 mil. bu. are up 18% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 9%. Jordan reportedly bought 60k mt of optional origin milling wheat at $262.50/mt CF for Feb-26 delivery. Conab raised their Brazilian production forecast 2% to 7.7 mmt, just above the USDA est. of 7.5 mmt. EU soft wheat exports as of Oct. 12th at 5.51 mmt are down 22.6% from YA
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