Ag Market View for Oct 31.22
Soybean ended higher. Despite being delayed, weekly US soybean exports were at the high end of estimates. Weekly exports were 94 mil bu vs 107 last week. Season to date exports are 375 mil bu vs 414 last year. SF ended over 14.00. Some feel dry Argentina weather may also be supporting prices. Forecast suggest dry Argentina weather into Nov 10. Light showers are forecast in north and west after Nov 10. Cold Brazil temps could trigger some soybean replanting. Recent drier trend should help with this. Traders will be watching closely Brazil weather with most forecast calling for a record 2023 crop. USDA is expected to est US soybean harvest at 89 pct vs 80 last week. Higher corn, wheat and soyoil futures also supported soybeans. Some Bears still feel that soybean prices may near season high given talk of lower World economies and food and fuel demand due to higher interest rates and inflated prices.
Corn futures are higher after a drone hit Russian mine sweeper in Crimea. CZ tested 7.00. West Midwest weather forecast is dry. Argentina is also mostly dry. USDA is expected to est US corn harvest at 75 pct vs 61 last week. Nov Matif corn futures traded higher. Cash markets in the Black Sea were also non-existent. Weekly EU imports were 533 mt with July-Jun running 116 pct ahead of last year and Oct-Sep is up 283 pct. Ukraine’s export prospects may be down which argues that UN statements on grain recipients are incorrect. Some feel US corn exports could be down 150 mil bu from USDA est. Weekly US corn exports were only 16 mil bu. Season to date exports are 165 mil bu vs 215 ly. USDA goal is 2,150 vs 2,471 last year. CZ is back near the high end of the sideways range since early Sep.
Wheat futures continue to trade higher after a drone hit Russian mine sweeper in Crimea. Russia was quick to suspend Ukraine export deal and shell key Ukraine cities and infrastructure including electrical grid. There is talk that loaded Ukraine grain boats are still moving out of Ukraine but some feel vessel owners may not send new vessels into Ukraine for loading. WZ tested 8.93, KWZ 9.82 and MWZ 9.90. US south plains weather forecast is mostly dry. Argentina is also mostly dry. Weekly US wheat exports were only 5.0. Season to date exports are 354 mil bu vs 355 last year. USDA goal is 775 vs 800 ly. US HRW crop supply is near 896 vs 1,182 ly. Carryout is 253 vs 360 ly. US SRW crop supply is near 436 vs 449 ly. Carryout is 91 vs 94 ly. US HRS crop supply 646 vs 575 ly. Carryout is 130 vs 140 ly.
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