Written Commentary
ADM Appoints Monish Patolawala as EVP and CFO
July 10, 2024
SOYBEANS
Soybeans ended higher led by SN. Talk of increase China interest in US soybeans offered support. Some felt weekly old and new crop soybean export sales were higher than expected and suggested USDA could increase US exports 60 mil bu in futures balance sheet update. SN tested 17.00 with support near 16.50. Talk of higher US export and crush demand supports the market. SMN continues to gain on BON. Talk of concern over lower global vegoil demand and Indonesia lifting its palmoil export demand on Monday continues to weigh on soyoil prices. Weekly US soybean export sales was near 752 mt old crop and 149 new. China bought 392 mt of US old crop soybeans.
CORN
July corn ended higher and gained on Dec. Talk of higher demand for US corn is helping CN. Some feel that the US 2022 corn crop will get planted between rains which offers resistance to CZ. There may be only a 5 pct chance that the UN will be successful in getting Russia to agree to open Ukraine exports. IGC lowered World 2022/23 corn crop 13 mmt due to US down 9 mmt. Ukraine is est near 18 mmt vs 42 ly. Weekly US corn export sales were 435 mt old and 588 mt new. China was 544 of the new crop sales. Global Weather remains supportive to corn futures. Wet weather across parts of US Midwest and north plains could slow final plantings. Some say corn planted post May 20 may not reach trend yield. South EU remains dry which has helped rally Matif corn. Dry Brazil weather could drop final Brazil corn crop and has helped rally domestic Brazil corn prices. Dry Black Sea weather could reduce crops there. This week, an Ukrainian Official warned of farmers cannot plant and harvest their 2022 crops, they may become bankrupt and may not be able to plant the 2023 crops. CN was unable to trade above 7.94 resistance. Some feel CN may have reach a short term objective with 7.64 support.
WHEAT
July Chicago wheat futures continues to trade lower. WN is near 12.00. Wheat futures have found resistance due to talk UN may barter a deal with Russia to allow for Ukraine grain exports. There may be only a 5 pct chance that the UN will be successful in getting Russia to agree. IGC Lowered World 2022/23 wheat crop 11 mmt due to US down 3 mmt and India down 6 mmt. Ukraine is est near 19 mmt vs 33 ly. Weekly US wheat export sales were 325 mt. Total commit is 19.2 mmt vs 25.6 ly. Wheat may have also found resistance after the annual Kansas wheat tour found a state yield near 39.7 vs USDA 39.0. Still the total Crop was estimated near 261 mil bu vs USDA 271. This suggest 5 state total near 439 mil bu versus 663 last year. Late planted US HRS crop could also drop US 2022 HRS crop. Early estimates of US HRS crop was near 533 mil bu vs 331 last year.
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