Written Commentary
ADM Reports Q4 and Full-year 2025 Results
February 3, 2026
CORN
Prices finished $.02-$.07 lower closing near session lows. Spreads also weakened. May-26 traded to a 10 month high before backing up. New crop Dec-26 peaked just below $5.00 bu. before correcting. Friday’s CFTC report showed MM’s bought nearly 67k contracts of corn, flipping their position to net long 53K contracts. IMEA reports corn plantings in Mato Grosso have reached 94%, just shy of the 96% pace from YA. AgRural reports Brazil’s 1st crop harvest has reached 42% while their 2nd crop plantings are at 82% compared to 92% YA. APK Inform forecasts Ukraine corn production in 2026 at 31.8 mmt, up from 30.9 mmt in 2025. Export inspections at 60 mil. bu. were in line with expectations however below the 64 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 1.622 bil. are up 41.5% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 15.5%. Noted buyers were Mexico – 18 mil., Japan – 10 mil. and Colombia – 7 mil.
SOYBEANS
Prices turned lower across most of the complex with beans ranging from $.05 lower to $.02 higher, meal was down $2-$4 while oil was off 30-50 points. Bean and meal spreads weakened while oil spreads were mixed. May-26 beans reached their highest level since Dec-23 before pulling back. May-26 meal has 100 day MA support at $311.60. New contracts high for May-26 oil peaking just below $.70 lb before correcting. A new 2 ½ year high on the weekly chart. A sharp pullback from the overnight highs in energy markets enabled agricultural prices to drift lower today. Although spot crude oil prices were still up nearly $4 per barrel, they were roughly $15 off session highs. Spot board crush margins pulled back $.09 to $2.20 ½ bu. while bean oil PV holding just above 51%. US Treasury Sec. Bessent and USTR Greer are expected to meet with Chinese trade officials in Paris this weekend ahead of Pres. Trump/Xi meeting in Beijing in late March. Unlikely we’ll see additional Chinese buying of US beans with Gulf FOB offers running $1.25-$1.50 over Brazilian offers into the summer months.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.13 lower in CGO to $.03 higher in MIAX. Spreads have eased in CGO and KC. CGO May-26 is down $.13 ½ at $6.03 ¼ after peaking just shy of the June-25 high near $6.45. KC May-26 was down $.04 at $6.19 ½ after jumping out to a 11 month high. APK Inform forecasts Ukraine wheat production in 2026 at 20 mmt, down from 23.2 mmt in 2025. Algeria is seeking 50k mt of soft wheat in a tender that closes tomorrow. Export inspections at 18 mil. bu. were at the high end of expectations and above the 16 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 703 mil. bu. are up 20% from YA, vs. the USDA at up 9%.
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