Ag Market View for March 20.2026

SOYBEANS

Prices were mostly lower with beans down $.05-$.07, meal dipped $3-$4 while oil was steady to 10 higher.  May-26 beans had seen 3 days of recovering since the limit down trade on Monday before ending the week on weak note.  Inside trade for Nov-26.  Inside trade for May-26 meal despite trading $7 lower.  Brazil’s trucker union didn’t not strike over soaring diesel prices, opting to start 7 days of negotiations with the Govt.  Since the limit down trade on Monday, May-26 bean oil has rejected trade below $.65 lb.  Spot board crush margins have backed off a few cents today after soaring to a fresh 3 ½ year high yesterday at $2.82 ½ bu.  Bean oil PV recovered back to 50%.  Bean oil also drew support from EPA data showing D4 RIN’s generated in Feb-26 jumped to 480 mil., up from 439 in Jan-26, an early tell for higher production of biodiesel and RD.  The record crush pace supports another 10-20 mil. bu. increase to the current USDA forecast of 2.575 bil. bu.  Exports are too high without additional Chinese purchases.  In Jan/Feb China imported only 1.5 mmt of US beans, down 84% from YA as little of the 12 mmt booked in late 2025 had arrived.  Imports from Brazil in Jan/Feb at 6.56 mmt were up 83%.  The BAGE kept their Argentina production forecast unchanged at 48.5 mmt, vs. the USDA forecast of 48 mmt.  It will likely take even higher energy prices and/or renewed buying from China to drive spot soybeans back above $12.  I believe that the Trump trip to China pushed back 6-7 weeks reduces the odds of meaningful old crop purchases, as does the $1+ discount for Brazilian soybeans.  My Mch. 1^st stocks forecast is 2.116 bil. bu. vs. 1.911 bil. YA.  Stocks divided by Q1/Q2 usage at 85.3% is well above the 68% from YA.  Both stocks and stocks/use are a 6 year high.  July-26 near $11.75 is historicall high, however IMO  justified (for now) given potential Chinese buying and soaring energy prices.