Written Commentary
ADM Reports Q4 and Full-year 2025 Results
February 3, 2026
CORN
Prices ranged from steady to $.02 higher in choppy 2 sided trade. Spreads were steady to weaker. Support for May-26 is at its 100 day MA at $4.47 ¼. Inside trade for Dec-26 with support at LW’s low at $4.73 ¼. White House economic advisory Paul Hassett claims the US is able to source fertilizer from other sources, namely Venezuela and Morocco, to make up a portion of the supplies held up in the Persian Gulf. Brazil’s 2nd crop plantings at 91% are below the YA pace of 97% with 1st crop harvest at only 50%, well below the 72% pace from YA. Look for US export demand to hold up well into Q2 with the moderate delays with Brazil’s 2nd crop. Conab forecasts Brazil’s ethanol production in 2026/27 will grow 4 bil. liters, up from 36.7 bil. in 2025/26. Ukraine’s grain exports so far for 2025/26 MY at only 24.2 mmt are off 23% YOY. Corn exports have reached only 13 mmt. EU corn imports as of Mch. 15th at 12.58 mmt are down 16.6% YOY. EIA data is expected to show ethanol production range between 320-338 mil. gallons LW, vs. 331 mil. the previous week.
SOYBEANS
Sharply mixed across the complex today with soybeans ranging from $.02-$.10 higher led by new crop. Meal futures roughly a buck lower while oil surged $.02 lb. Bean spreads weakened while product spreads were mixed. May-26 beans bottomed out overnight at $11.45 ¼, a 50% retracement of the rally from the January low to the recent high. May-26 meal held support at LW’s low of $307.50 setting up the price recovery. Bean oil prices drew support from higher energy prices and expectations for favorable RVO/SRE policy from the Trump Admin. Volume estimates hover in a range of 5.3-5.5 bil. gallons annually with 75% of the SRE’s being reallocated onto Big Oil, which may result in pushback. Also providing support was Pres. Trump stating his summit with Chinese leader Xi was only postponed and would occur in “five or six weeks”, 3 to 4 weeks later than originally scheduled. Spot board crush margins surged another $.19 to $2.54 ½ bu., the highest since Aug-23, while bean oil PV bounced back to 51.4%. Cumulative crush through the first half of the 25/26 MY at 1.334 bil. bu. is up 8.2% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 5.3%. Daily crush rates in Feb-26 at 7.64 mbd is a new record high. Look for another 10-15 mil. bu. hike in the USDA crush est. currently projected at 2.575 bil. bu. Higher crush however is leading to a buildup of inventories with NOPA oil stocks growing to nearly 2.1 bil. lbs. well above the 1.503 bil. from Feb-25.
WHEAT
Prices range from $.07-$.10 lower with MIAX futures leading the declines. Nearby support for CGO May-26 is at LW’s low of $5.83 ¾. Support for KC May-26 is at $5.98 ¼. Jordan reportedly purchased 60k mt of optional origin wheat in today’s 120k mt tender at $277.50/mt CF. Shipment is expected the first half of June. Wild temperature swings and growing drought in the SW plains should provide underlying support. Crop ratings slipped in the southern plains with KS slipping 4% to 52% G/E, TX was off 1% to 15% G/E with OK down 6% to only 18% G/E. Ukraine’s wheat exports to date have reached 9.4 mmt. EU 25/26 soft wheat exports at 16.77 mmt are up 8% YOY. The recent surge has left US wheat even less competitive in the global marketplace.
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