Written Commentary
ADM Appoints Monish Patolawala as EVP and CFO
July 10, 2024
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was mixed. Nearby soybeans were up $.06 – $.18 making new highs near the close, while deferred contracts were $.01 – $.02 lower. Soybean meal was mixed with most contracts within $1 of unchanged. Soybean oil was up 30 – 40. May-23 continues to rebound from last week’s speculative sell-off having met its next resistance level at $14.77 ½. Next resistance is the 100 day MA, currently $14.90. The next resistance in May-23 meal is $466.40 vs. today’s high of $461.90. Spot board crush margins slipped $.05 today to $1.40 bu. Since peaking at nearly 2.46 in early March, the Nov-23 Beans/Dec-23 corn ratio has dropped significantly the balance of the month before rebounding in recent days. Recall the Farm Futures survey last week which forecast 2023 US soybean acres at 89.6 mil. with corn at only 87.7 mil. vs the USDA Outlook est. of 87.5 soybeans and 91 mil. acres corn. The FF survey was taken Mch 4th – 14th, as the bean/corn ratio was peaking. We’ll see if the USDA surveys offer similar findings. Export sales tomorrow expected in a range of 15 – 25 mil. bu. soybeans, 100 – 300k tons meal, and 0 – 10k tons of soybean oil.
CORN
Following a strong start, corn prices pulled back closing mixed for the session. Old crop finished $.01 – $.03 higher, while new crop was down $.01 – $.02. The 50 day MA at $6.55 ½ capped today’s rally in May-23 corn. The next resistance is the 100 day MA, currently $6.58 ¾. The USDA announced the sale of 204k tons (8 mil. bu.) of old crop corn to China. Announced sales to China/unknown this week have now reached 453k tons, 18 mil. bu. Cumulative sales the past 3 weeks are 126 mil. Ethanol production improved to 1,001 tbd last week, up from 997 tbd the previous week. Corn usage at 101 mil. bu. was just below the weekly pace needed to reach the current USDA forecast of 5.250 bil. bu. Implied gasoline demand last week was up 7.6% over YA, and the highest weekly usage this calendar year. Look for export sales tomorrow in a range from 40 – 80 mil. bu.
WHEAT
Prices couldn’t hold the early strength, pulling back in late day trade to close mixed for the session. Chicago was up $.03 – $.05, KC was down $.02 – $.04, while MGEX was down $.03 – $.05. May-23 KC reached its highest level in 5 weeks, however failed to trade above the $9 level. May-23 MGEX traded above its 50 day MA intraday, however also failed to trade above the $9 level, before closing back below this key resistance level. Despite expectations of a record wheat crop, India is still expected to continue its ban on exports, this according to the chairman of Food Corp. of India Ashok Meena. As the winter wheat crop breaks dormancy this Spring, Kansas winter wheat ratings will be starting at near record low levels. Without improved weather soon yield forecasts will decline while abandonment will increase. Doesn’t appear likely to improve soon with little to no moisture in the 7 day forecast. May-23 KC premium to Chicago backed off $.07 today closing at $1.65 ¾, after reaching a new high of $1.80. Export sales tomorrow expected to range from 6 – 18 mil. bu.
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