Ag Market View for June 3.22


Soybeans ended lower. There remains concern that food inflation could trigger lower food demand and commodity imports. UN April Food index was up 23 pct vs last year. Meat up 13, dairy up 17, Cereal grain up 30 pct, vegoil up 31 pct and sugar up 12 pct. Some feel Managed funds may be done for now liquidating a long corn and short soybean spread which may have weighed on soybean futures today. Soyoil gained on talk of higher US 2023 EPA fuel mandate. Weekly US soybean export sales were 111 mt old crop and 284 mt new crop. Total commit is near 59.6 mmt vs 61.5 ly. USDA goal is 58.2 vs 61.5 ly. Informa est World 2022 soybean crop near 388 mmt vs 350 ly. Brazil 145 vs 125. US 124 vs 120 last year.


Corn futures ended lower. Lower US stocks and most commodities including wheat and soybean weighed on corn futures into the close. Mostly favorable US Midwest weather forecast may have triggered Managed funds long liquidation. Last week, US corn plantings were near 86 pct. Remaining acres are in US north cornbelt. Some could see drop in final acres with rains returning to the area next week. USDA announced US corn sales to unknown. US old crop corn export sales were 185 mt and only 48 mt new crop. Total commit is near 59.2 mmt vs 69.1 ly USDA goal is 63.5 vs 69.9 ly. Informa est World 2022 corn crop near 1,186 mmt vs 1,213 ly. US 377 vs 384, China 271 vs 272, Brazil 119 vs 113 and Ukraine 24 vs 42. Trade is on edge for June 10 meeting in which Turkey will ask Russia to open Ukraine exports. Continued talk of restarting Ukraine exports offers resistance to US futures. Some will be watching next week USDA Supply and Demand report. Some feel they may not make many changes from May waiting for more information on demand for US export and US 2022 summer weather. In May, USDA dropped US corn yield 4 bpa. EPA announced 2021 Ethanol mandate at 18.84 billion gallons vs 17.13 in 2020. 2023 mandate is 20.63 billion gallons.


Wheat futures ended lower. Trade is on edge for June 10 meeting in which Turkey will ask Russia to open Ukraine exports. Continued talk of restarting Ukraine exports offers resistance to US futures. WN ended near 10.40. Support is near 9.96. Resistance 10.98 50 DMA. KWN ended near 11.21. Support is near 11.00. Resistance is near 50 DMA 11.61. Approaching US HRW harvest offers resistance. Still there should be storage for the lower crop. MWN ended near 11.91. support is 50 DMA near 11.90. Resistance 12.50. Talk of lower acres due to persistent rains offers support. Weekly US wheat export sales are 70 mt and new crop 363 mt. Total commit is 19.4 mmt vs 25.6 ly. USDA goal is 21.9 vs 27.0 ly. Informa est World 2022 wheat crop near 769 mmt vs 779 ly. India 102 vs 109. Ukraine 21 vs 33. US crop 1,732 mil bu vs 1,646 ly. HRW 584 vs 749, SRW 353 vs 361, HRS 432? vs 297 ly. This week Egypt and Algeria paid record high prices for import wheat.

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