Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q3 2024
October 8, 2024
CORN
Corn futures ended lower and below 4.40 support. NWS 6-10 day forecast is for normal rains and above normal temps. EU model suggest next week humidity could be low which could limit rains especially in east. Weekly US corn export sales were only 20 mil bu. Total commit is near 2,080 vs 1,521 ly. Brazil corn export prices are lowest to Asia. Corn open interest has dropped from recent high of 1,654,000 to 1,573,000. USDA estimates US 2023/24 corn carryout at 2,022 mil bu with feed use 5,700, ethanol 5,450 and export near 2,150 vs 1,661 ly. Some have carryout closer to 1,937 due to higher feed use. USDA est US 2024/25 corn carryout at 2,102. Some are closer to 2,292 due to a bigger crop.
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures ended higher before key US Midwest weather week. SN has bounced off 11.50 support. NWS 6-10 day forecast is for normal rains and above normal temps. EU model suggest next week humidity could be low which could limit rains especially in east. Weekly US soybean export sales were 20 mil bu. Total commit is near 1,629 mil bu vs 1,914 ly. US Soymeal total commit is near 12.6 mmt vs 11.4 ly. Soybean open interest has dropped from recent high of 849,000 to 801,000. USDA estimates US 2023/24 soybean carryout at 350 mil bu with a record 2,290 crush and export near 1,700 vs 1,992 ly. Some have carryout closer to 400 due to lower export. USDA est US 2024/25 soybean carryout at 455 due to higher crop vs higher crush and exports. Some are closer to 500 due to a bigger crop.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended lower. Talk of increase US winter wheat harvest yields and lower EU, Ukraine and Russia prices is offering resistance to futures. Canada and US spring wheat crops are also abpve average. South America wheat crops are off to a good start. Australia wheat futures are near 2 month lows. One Russia analyst est wheat crop closer to 82 mmt which reduces chances for crop below 80 mmt Weekly US wheat export sales were good at 21 mil bu. Total commit is near 199 mil bu vs 149 ly. Wheat open interest dropped from recent high of 438,000 to 395,000. And increased now to 411,000 on new shorts. USDA est US 2024/25 wheat carryout at 758. Some are closer to 730 due to a higher exports.
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