Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q4 2025
December 22, 2025
CORN
Prices were up $.02-$.03 closing near session highs. Spreads were little changed. Mch-26 is back above its 50 MA while holding near the midpoint of its 2 ½ month range of $4.35-$4.55. Brazil’s Ag. Ministry reports corn exports reached 6.13 mmt in Dec-25, up 44% YOY. Exports in 2025 totaled 41.7 mmt, up 10.6%. ANEC is forecasting exports in 2026 will rise to 44 mmt vs. USDA forecast at 43 mmt. Ethanol production slipped to 1,098 tbd, or 323 mil. gallons in the week ended Fri. Jan. 2nd down from 329 mil. There was 109 mil. bu. used in the production process, or 15.55 mil. bu. per day, above the 15.35 mbd needed to reach the USDA forecast. Ethanol stocks jumped to 23.7 mil. barrels, a 5 month high however just below the 24.1 mb from YA. Tomorrow’s export sales are expected to land between 28-60 mil. bu.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mostly higher with beans up $.08-$.11, meal surged $5-$7 while oil is down 10-15 points. Spreads have firmed across the complex. Mch-26 beans seemed to run out of steam above yesterday’s high, however hadn’t back up much either. Next resistance at the 100 day MA at $10.85. Mch-26 meal surged back above its 100 day MA. Once again buying in Mch-26 oil seemed to dry up above $.50 lb. Weakness in energy markets also weighed on bean oil. Spot board crush margins firmed about a penny to $1.47 ½ with bean oil PV slipping back to 44.7%. China may be looking to shore up a vast majority of the 12 mmt of US soybeans ahead of next Monday’s USDA updates.
WHEAT
Prices finished with gains ranging from $.03-$.10 with KC the upside leader. Next resistance for Mch-26 CGO is $5.25. Mch-26 KC surged thru both its 50 and 100 day MA with next resistance at last month’s high of $5.36 ½. Since last reporting in late Nov-25, winter wheat ratings fell 2% in KS to 60% G/E, still well above the 47% G/E from YA. Ratings fell in CO, NE, OK and TX, while increasing in MT and ND. Markets benefited from expectations for expanded drought conditions in US winter wheat areas along with speculative short covering.
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