Ag Market View for Feb 2
Soybeans, soymeal, soyoil, corn and wheat traded lower. US stocks traded sharply higher. US Dollar was higher. Crude was higher. Gold and silver traded lower.
Soybean traded lower. Lack of new old crop US soybean sales to China and approaching Brazil soybean harvest weighed on prices. US new crop soybean export commit is a record 3.6 mmt. There continues to be talk that China is asking for prices of US old crop PNW soybean and new crop soybeans. favorable China soybean crush margins continues to suggest record China imports. The 3 reasons for the recent rally from the Dec USDA export; new China buying US corn and soybeans, talk of drier South America weather lower crops there and ultimately their corn , soymeal and soymeal exports. Bears pushing soybean lower. More and more think USDA will punt on Feb 9 and could even show a higher Brazil soybean crop, no increase in US exports or lower carryouts. Informa left Brazil soybean crop at 133 mmt. They est Argentina 48 mmt. SH is back below 20 day moving average. SH could be In a wide trading range between 13.00 and 14.00 until more is known about US supply and demand outlook.
Corn traded lower. Lack of new US corn sales to China offered resistance. Bears pushing corn lower despite delays in Brazil Corn plantings. More and more think USDA will punt on Feb 9 and could not drop South America corn crops as much as hoped, not increase in US exports or lower carryouts. Nebraska, Iowa and east Midwest states contacts concerned that they cannot buy summer corn. Cash doing a better job at showing tighten US stocks than futures. Increase net farmer income could slow marketing’s especially on lower futures. Most still think futures will make new highs on tightening US corn and soybean supplies. Weekly EIA ethanol production is expected to down slightly from last week with a small build in ethanol stocks from last week. China continues to look at offers for US ethanol. USDA announced sales of 115 mt corn to Mexico. Trade is looking for large weekly US corn export sales with at least 4.0 mmt to China. CH could be back in a 4.20-4.60 range. Trade will be watching old-new corn spreads for signal of tight US supplies and start of rebound in futures.
Wheat futures traded lower. Higher US Dollar and lack of new US Wheat sales offered resistance. Fact corn is narrowing price versus Corn could suggest increase in US wheat feeding. US 2 month Weather forecast suggest dry weather for west south plains but normal rains for central and east south plains and most of US SRW areas. An arctic blast will push deep into the central US Friday through next Thursday bringing 7 days of daily low temperatures near or below zero. A forecast snow event just ahead of the cold wave is expected to limit a winter kill treat for all but 5% of the HRW wheat in the North Plains and all but 20% of SRW wheat in central MO and south IL. Egypt bought 480m wheat with 120 mt Russian, 240 mt French, 60 mt Romanian and 60 mt Ukrainian wheat. Russian wheat export prices fell due to more active supply from farmers concerned about upcoming higher wheat export taxes. Moscow is attempting to reduce wheat exports to help curb rising domestic food prices. Russia wheat exports could reach 42 mmt vs USDA est of 39.
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