Ag Market View for Feb 12
Soybeans, soyoil and wheat traded higher. Soymeal and corn traded lower. US stocks were mixed. Crude was higher. Meats were higher. Copper and silver gained on gold.
Soybeans ended higher. Some link this to late Brazil soybean harvest and tightening US soybean balance sheet. Talk of increase China and India demand for vegoil supported soyoil. Concern about ASF in China hog herd may have weighed on soymeal. Next week, USDA will have their annual Outlook Forum. They will be releasing their first US 2021/22 soybean supply and demand. Trade estimates 2021 soybean acres near 89.8 million and crop near 4,520 mil bu. Trade estimates US 2021/22 soybean carryout near 179. This could be negative to futures. This weeks nearby soybean futures range was 13.37-14.09. Some feel this could be the range until more is known about South America supplies and China demand. One group looks for April-June soybean futures to average 14.10. Normal weather could drop Oct-Dec average to 11.40. Same group estimates April-June soymeal futures to average near 448. Fall low near 373. They also estimate April-June soyoil futures to average near 44 cents. Fall low near 38.
Corn futures traded lower. Market could still be trying to trade this weeks bearish USDA report. USDA failed to lower South America crops, raise US demand more than they did and failed to lower US carryout to near the average traded guess. Next week, USDA will have their annual Outlook Forum. They will be releasing their first US 2021/22 corn supply and demand. Trade estimates US 2021 corn acres near 92.9 million and a crop near 15,243. Trade also looks for US 2021/22 corn carryout near 1,725 mil bu. This could be negative to futures. This weeks nearby corn futures range was 5.24-5.74. Some feel this could be the range until more is known about South America supplies and China demand. One group looks for April-June corn future to average 5.25. Normal weather could drop Oct-Dec average to 4.85. US corn export commit is near 57.5 mmt versus 23.7 last year. China commit is near 17.7 mmt with 8.1 in unknown. USDA goal is 66.0 versus 45.1 last year. Some feel final exports could reach 73.0 mmt. USDA estimated China imports at 24.0 mmt but raised end stocks from 191 mmt to 196. Prior to the report, UN FAO estimated China corn stocks near 139 mmt.
Wheat futures ended higher on concern over US cold temps and impact the could have on the US 2021 winter wheat crop. Most feel the crop has seen mostly good weather and will be hardy which could limit the impact on the crop. US winter wheat crops are made in April not loss in Feb. This week, USDA made no changes to the US wheat balance sheet. USDA still estimates total demand near 2,138 mil bu versus 2,089 last year. Carryout is near 836 versus 1,028 last year. Next week, USDA will have their annual Outlook Forum. They will be releasing their first US 2021/22 wheat supply and demand. Trade estimates US 2021 wheat acres near 45.3 million and a crop near 1,874 mil bu. Trade estimates US 2021/22 wheat carryout near769 mil bu. This weeks nearby Chicago wheat futures range was 5.24-5.74. Russia has slowed new cash selling. This and talk their exports could be lower than USDA guess offers support. NOAA suggest some weakening of La Nina in April. This could offer a normal spring weather across most of the US plains and Midwest.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.