Ag Market View for Feb 1
Soybeans, soyoil and wheat traded lower. Corn and soymeal ended unchanged. US stocks were higher. US Dollar was higher. Crude was higher. Silver was higher.
Soybeans traded lower but off session lows. Talk of good rains in Argentina and the end of the Argentina truck strike offered resistance. Favorable Brazil weather and some talk USDA could increase Brazil soybean crop in their Feb report also weighed on prices. There are also estimates that Brazil soybean harvest could start in 2-3 weeks. Weekly US soybean exports were near 66 mil bu vs 77 last week and 51 last year. Season to date exports are near 1,736 mil b versus 979 last year. USDA goal is 2,230 vs 1,682 ly. US soybean export commit is near 2,125 mil bu versus 1,161 last year. USDA estimates US carryout near 140 which some feel is minimum pipeline. Some could see China needing to switch 50-100 mil bu soybean from Brazil to US due to Brazil late harvest. This could drop final US carryout below 100 mil bu.
Corn futures ended higher. Early weakness was linked in part to lack of new US corn sales to China and talk of more favourable South America weather. USDA did announce 110 mt US corn sold to Japan and 125.7 mt US corn to Mexico. Weekly US corn exports were near 43 mil bu versus 55 last week and 22 last year. Season to date exports are near 781 mil bu versus 425 last year. USDA goal is 2,550 vs 1,778 ly. Corn export commit is near 1,916 mil bu versus 848 last year. USDA estimates US carryout near 1,552. Some could see final exports up 300 mil bu and domestic use up 200. This would suggest a carryout closer to 1,052. Most bulls still feel higher China demand for US corn could tighten US 2020/21 corn carryout. CH support is near 5.30, Resistance is 5.60. Early guess for US 2021 corn acres are near 94.0 versus 90.8 last year. This could suggest an US 2021 corn crop near 15,500 mil bu. If demand is near 15,150-15,300 carryout could range from 1,150 to 1,600. There was talk of China interest in US DDG and ethanol.
Wheat futures traded lower. Higher US Dollar and talk of increase Russian farmer selling offered resistance. Russia announced plans to increase Russia export talk to 70 pct on June 1 for prices over $200 per tonne. This is in addition to a tax on Feb 15 and March 1. Some feel farmer selling was linked to trying to make sales before the exports taxes slow export demand. Our weather guy look for US South plains Feb- Mar weather to be normal temps. Rain fall could be below normal west and above normal east and in SRW areas. Weekly US wheat exports were near 14 mil bu vs 21 last week and 14 last year. Season to date exports are near 608 mil bu vs 611 last year. Some feel drop in Russia, EU and Argentina wheat exports could shift some demand to US.
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