Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q4 2025
December 22, 2025
CORN
CH is near 4.49. Solid US corn export sales pushed CH over resistance. Private estimates of US 25/26 corn carryout is near 2,320 mil bu vs USDA 2,029. Final US feed/residual is est closer to 5,925 mil bu vs USDA 6,100. Exports are est at 3,115 mil bu vs 2,858 last year. Ethanol use is est near 5,600 mil bu vs 5.436 ly. NE. USDA est World 25/26 corn production at 1,283 mmt vs 1,230 last year. Export are est at 205 mmt vs 187 ly. Of the total, Brazil is 43 mmt vs 41 ly. US is est at 81 mmt vs 72 ly.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 10.73. Fact Jan options expires today may be weighing on futures. BOH is lower. BOH is waiting for EPA policy. Palmoil futures were higher on new export demand. Private estimates of US 25/26 soybean carryout is near 400 mil bu vs USDA 290. Final US exports are est closer to 1,500 vs USDA 1,635. US soybean crush could be a record 2,575 mil bu vs 2,445 ly. Trade will be watching South America weather. South half of Argentina is dry. No rain is forecast for next 10 days. Brazil will see normal rains except NE. USDA est World 25/26 soybean production at 422 mmt vs 427 last year. Export are est at 187 mmt vs 184 ly. Of the total, Brazil is 112 mmt vs 103 ly. World soymeal trade is est at record 82 mmt vs 81 ly. Argentina is 29 mmt vs 23.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.18. WH is trying to consolidate at new lows with futures oversold. KWH is near 5.34. MWZ is near 5.79. WH has been in a technical downtrend since Nov high near 5.68 to low near 5.07 on sharp drop in open interest. Trade est US 25/26 wheat carryout closer to 880 mil bu vs USDA 901 due to higher exports. USDA est World wheat stocks near 271.4 mmt vs 261.4 last year. Trade est US 2026 wheat acres at 44.0 mil vs 45.3 this past year. 26/27 carryout is estimate near 844 mil bu due to lower crop offset by lower exports. USDA est World 25/26 wheat production at 837 mmt vs 828 in Nov and 800 last year. Export are est at 218 mmt vs 210 ly. Of the total, Russia is 44 mmt vs 43 ly. US is est at 24 mmt vs 22 ly.
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