Written Commentary
ADM Reports Third Quarter 2025 Results
November 4, 2025
CORN
CH is near 4.44. This month USDA dropped World corn crop production 3 mmt to 1,283 mmt. Last year was 1,230. They estimated World domestic use at a record 1,297 mmt vs 1,252 ly. Exports were estimated at a record 205 mmt vs 187 ly. This left end stocks at 279 mmt vs 293 ly. US and Argentina are lowest price sellers as trade awaits South America crops and slowdown in Ukraine exports. On Monday, US export sales for the week of Dec 4 are estimated at 1,200-2,400 mt vs 1,793 the previous week. Private estimates of US 25/26 corn carryout is near 2,320 mil bu vs USDA 2,029. Final US feed/residual is est closer to 5,925 mil bu vs USDA 6,100. Exports are est at 3,115 mil bu vs 2,858 last year. Ethanol use is est near 5,600 mil bu vs 5.436 ly.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 10.60. SH has taken all of the gain from the USDA/China trade deal out. BOH is making new lows on lower World vegoil prices and increase in US stocks. USDA announced 134 mt US soybean were sold to China. This month USDA increased World soybean crop production 1 mmt to 422 mmt. Last year was 427. They estimated crush at a record 365 mmt vs 358 ly. Exports were estimated at a record 187 mmt vs 184 ly. This left end stocks at 122 mmt vs 123 ly. USDA estimates China soybean imports at 112 mmt vs 108 ly. Brazil exports are esr at 112 mmt vs 103 ly. Private estimates of US 25/26 soybean carryout is near 400 mil bu vs USDA 290. On Monday, US export sales for the week of Dec 4 are estimated at 800-2,000 mt vs 1,106 the previous week.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.10. KWH is near 5.16. MWZ is near 5.78. WH has been in a technical downtrend since Nov high near 5.68 to low near 5.04 on increase in open interest. Argentina and Russia remain aggressive seller of exports This month USDA increased World wheat crop production 9 mmt to 835 mmt. Last year was 800. They estimated World total domestic use at a record 823 mt. Exports were estimated at 218 mmt vs 210 ly. This left end stocks at 274 mmt vs 261 last year.
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