Written Commentary
ADM Reports Third Quarter 2025 Results
November 4, 2025
CORN
Prices were $.02-$.04 higher however nearby spreads weakened. Mch-26 futures jumped out to new highs for the week while closing near its 50 day MA at $4.43 ¾. Prices continue to hold in a $4.35-$4.55 range. MM’s bought 34k contracts of corn in the week ended Dec. 2nd, flipping their net position back to net long 23k contracts. Export sales for the week ended Nov. 20th at 71 mil. bu. brought YTD commitments to 1.746 bil. bu. up 30% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 12%. YTD commitments represent 55% of the USDA forecast, well above the historical average of 45%. Noted buyers were Japan and Mexico with 18 mil., while Colombia and Mexico bought 7-8 mil. each. China imported 560k mt of corn in Nov-25 (from Brazil), while up 87% from Nov-24 their YTD imports at only 1.85 mmt are off 86% YOY. The EU raised their 25/26 corn production forecast .2 mmt to 57.8 mmt, above the USDA est. of 56.75. US corn acres in drought increased 1% in the past week to 32%.
SOYBEANS
Prices weakened into the close finishing near session lows. Beans were down $.05-$.07, meal was up less than $1 while oil was 40-45 points lower. Bean and meal spreads firmed while oil spreads were slightly lower. Fresh 8 week low for Jan-26 beans while closing lower for a 5th consecutive session. Next support is near $10.20. Jan-26 meal also dipped to an 8 week low however recovered having rejected trade below its 100 day MA. Jan-26 oil held just above $.48 lb. Exports sales at 41 mil. brought YTD commitments to 802 mil. bu. down 39% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 13%. Sales to China were nearly 19 mil. with 11 mil. to Egypt and 7 mil. to Mexico. The USDA also made a flash sale announcements of 114k mt (4.2 mil. bu.) to unknown. Meal sales at 436k tons brought YTD commitments to 7,593k tons up 4% YOY vs. the USDA export forecast of up 5%. Bean oil sales at 56 mil. lbs. brought YTD commitments to 438 mil. down 52% YOY vs. USDA down 64%. Commitments to China as of Nov. 27th plus flash announcements take known sales to 4.8 mmt.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.02-$.11 higher with KC and MIAX the leaders to the upside. Chicago futures lagged as Mch-26 premium to corn has fallen to a new 2 ½ low at $.64 bu. Wheat will continue to try and work into feed rations. Spreads in CGO eased while slightly firmer in KC and MIAX. US WW acres in drought increased 2% to 36%, likely to increase further into year end. In the period ending Dec. 2nd MM’s were net buyers of 10k contracts in CGO, 4k in KC and nearly 2k in MIAX. Their combined short position fell to only 81,641 contracts, the lowest in 13 months. I’m sensing the past few weeks they’ve started to pile back into the short side of the market. Export sales at 17 mil. bu. brought YTD commitments to 696 mil. bu. up 23% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 9%. By class commitments vs. the USDA forecast are: HRW up 94% vs. USDA up 49%, SRW up 7.6% vs. up 2.6%, HRS down 5% vs. down 8%, and white up 5% vs. down 10%.
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