Written Commentary
ADM Reports Third Quarter 2025 Results
November 4, 2025
CORN
Prices were $.04-$.06 settling near session lows and into new lows for the week. Spreads also eased. The USDA announced the sale of 250k mt (10 mil. bu.) to an unknown buyer. China’s state statistic’s bureau est. their grain production in 2025 at a record 715 mmt up 1.2% from YA. Corn production reportedly reached 301 mmt, above the USDA est. of 295 mmt. The Rosario Grain Exchange yesterday pegged Argentine production in 2025/26 at 61 mmt, well above the USDA est. of 53 mmt. They estimate plantings have reached 57%. Ukraine’s grain harvest so far in 2025 has reached only 55.5 mmt, below the expected 60 mmt. Corn harvest has only reached 25.34 mmt, below the USDA est. of 29 mmt as wet conditions have left many fields still unharvested. Continued growth in Brazil’s corn ethanol industry should continue to bode well for US exports.
SOYBEANS
Prices are mostly with beans down $.12-$.17 closing near session lows, meal was mixed as Jan-26 close slightly higher while deferred contracts were $1-$3. Oil was down 60-75 points. Bean and oil spreads weakened while meal spreads firmed. Jan-26 beans have reached a fresh 6 week low with next support at its 100 day MA at $10.68 ¼, which is in the gap from late Oct-25 between $10.63-$10.70. Jan-26 meal has turned higher supported by the recent uptick in export demand. Jan-26 oil fell to a new low for the month while briefly trading under $.50 lb. Spot board crush margins surged $.09 ½ to $1.39 ½ bu., ending up unchanged for the week. Bean oil PV slipped to 45.3%. In addition to the flash bean sale to China, the USDA announced 104.3k tons of soybean meal sold to Mexico. China’s SinoGrain will auction off another 500k mt of soybean reserves next Tues. as they continue to free up space for incoming US beans. This is their 2nd weekly auction as traders expect over the next couple months will release roughly 4 mmt. So far known sales to China including this week’s flash sales total just over 3.6 mmt, not including announced sales to unknown. So far cash sources suggest total purchases may have already reached 5-6 mmt. Despite Chinese buying the market senses it will not be enough to prevent the USDA from lowering their current export forecast of 1.635 bil bu
WHEAT
Prices finished steady to $.04 lower across the 3 classes. KC Mch-26 closed into 6 week lows. Russia held their export taxes for corn, wheat and other feed grains at zero. Tunisia reported bought 125k mt of soft wheat paying around $256/mt CF and 100k mt of durum paying between 318-321 mt. China’s state statistic’s bureau est. 2025 wheat production at 140 mmt, in line with the USDA. Frigid temperatures across the NC Midwest this weekend are not expected to induce damage to winter crops. Yesterday the RGE raised their Argentine wheat production forecast to a massive 27.7 mmt, well above the already record forecast from the USDA at 24 mmt. Yields continue to smash previous records as harvest has reached 58%.
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